HeadquartersInternationalCrisisGroupAvenueLouise235•1050Brussels,BelgiumTel:+3225029038•brussels@crisisgroup.orgPreventingWar.ShapingPeace.TowardaViableFutureforSouthSudanAfricaReportN°300|10February2021TableofContentsExecutiveSummary...................................................................................................................iI.Introduction.....................................................................................................................1II.TorturedHistory,TroubledPresent.................................................................................3A.DecadesofCleavages.................................................................................................5B.Pre-independenceInclusion,Post-independenceExclusion....................................7C.AShakyPeace............................................................................................................8D.ShatteredCountry,ShatteredPlans..........................................................................9III.FightingFires....................................................................................................................11A.PreventingAnotherCollapse.....................................................................................11B.SilencingtheOtherGuns...........................................................................................12IV.Elections:Hurdle,NotFinishLine..................................................................................15A.RisksInherentinanElection....................................................................................15B.AvertingtheLoser-Loses-AllScenario......................................................................17V.TheLongTerm:BeyondKiirandMachar.......................................................................19A.SharingtheCentre.....................................................................................................20B.DecentralisingtheState......
