20190830摩根大通全球数据.pdfVIP免费

EconomicResearchAugust30,2019GlobalDataWatchCentralbanksneedtoengagegovernmenttoaddresstheirconstraintsUSgrowthholdsupbutglobaldragiswashingontoitsshores2020fiscaleasingremainsanEMAsiastorysofarNextweek:Tariffsup;Powelltalks;AugustPMIsandUSpayrollsYoudancewiththeonethatbrungyaRapid-firegeopoliticalnewsandelevatedglobalrecessionrisksnaturallytakefocusawayfromunderlyingchallengesfacingtheglobaleconomy.Arrestingtwodecadesofweakeningdemographicandproductivitytrends(“theglobalsupplyslide”)isacentralone(Figure1).Withthereverberationsofthefinancialcrisismagnifyingthisslide,persistentweakwagegains,risingincomeinequality,andpublicsectordebtarealteringthepoliticallandscape.Thesealterationsarenot,however,generatingpolicyresponsesthataddressunderlyingproblems.Instead,arisingtideofpopulismandnationalismingeopoliticalconflicts—tradeandBrexitamongothers—isfurtherdamagingglobalgrowthprospects.Thebiggestmedi-um-termriskisthatthisrisingtideestablishesasustainedadversefeedbackloopwherebyeconomicpressuresproducecounter-productivepoliticalresponses.Againstthisbackdrop,centralbankshavebeenpressuredtoengageinthepoliticalprocess.FormerNewYorkFedpresidentWilliamDudleyopinedthisweekthat“ifthegoalofmonetarypolicyistoachievethebestlong-termeconomicoutcome,thenFedofficialsshouldconsiderhowtheirdecisionswillaffectthepoliticaloutcomein2020.”Similaradvicehasbeenofferedelsewhere.DuringtheEuroareasovereigncrisistheECBwasoftenadvisedtosetpolicytopressuregovernmentstoaddressEMU’sinstitutionalflaws.Inpre-AbenomicsJapan,itwasregularlysuggestedthattheBoJrefrainfromeasingtopressureitsgovernmenttotackleJapan’spressingstructuralneeds.Thisadviceismisguided,inourview,notwithstandingthelimitedleveragecentralbankshaveininfluencingpolitics.Modernmonetarypolicyisbuiltontheideathatthebusinesscycleismanagedbestwhencentralbankersareinsu-latedfrompoliticalpressure.Byattemptingtoinfluencepolitics,centralbankersunderminethecasefortheiroperationalindependence.Inaddition,effectivemonetarypolicytransmis...