高级商务英语阅读补充时文SupplementaryReadingforChapter5FastTracktoLostJobsShiftingblameformanufacturingjoblossEffectofrisingtradedeficitshouldn'tbeignoredByJoshBivensApril8,2004|EPIBriefingPaper#149ManyeconomicobservershaverecentlyexoneratedinternationaltradeflowsforthehemorrhagingjoblossesinthemanufacturingsectoroftheUnitedStates,generallyclaimingthateitherchangingdemandpatternsorrapidproductivitygrowtharethecauseofmanufacturing'sdecline.Buttheevidenceshowsthattradeimbalancesinmanufacturinghaveaccountedfor59%ofthedeclineinmanufacturingemploymentsince1998.Acloseexaminationofnetimports,demandformanufacturedgoods,andproductivitygrowthrevealsthatthesethreefactorsinfluencetheU.S.manufacturingindustryinthefollowingways:•U.S.consumersandbusinesseshavenotshiftedtheirpurchasingawayfrommanufacturedgoods.Infact,demandformanufacturedgoodsasashareoftotaldemandintheUnitedStateshasactuallygrownoverthepast10years.•Therisingtradedeficithasledtoanunprecedenteddivergencebetweendomesticmanufacturingoutputanddemand.Domesticoutputisnowjust76.5%ofdomesticdemand,nearly14%lessthanthe1987to1997average.Raisingoutputclosertothispreviousrelationshipwithdemand(around90%)wouldgeneratemillionsofjobsinmanufacturing.•Therisingtradedeficitinmanufacturedgoodsaccountsforabout58%ofthedeclineinmanufacturingemploymentbetween1998and2003and34%ofthedeclinefrom2000to2003.Thistranslatesintoabout1.78millionjobssince1998and935,000jobssince2000thathavebeenlostduetorisingnetmanufacturedimports.Themanufacturingsectorlostmorethanthreemillionjobsbetween1998and2003,with2.7millionlostsincetheimmediatepre-recessionyearof2000.Roughlycoincidingwiththismanufacturingemploymentloss,thetradedeficitinmanufacturedgoodsincreasedbyover$230billion.Thesynchronicityoflarge-scalemanufacturingjoblossandgrowingtradedeficitshasledtoadebateaboutwhetherinternationaltradeflowshavecontributedtothelossofmanufacturingjobs.高级商务英语阅读补充时文Thoseeconomicobserversthatdismisstradeasaprimarydriverofmanufacturingjoblossclaimthateither...
