世界银行-东非和南非的港口发展与竞争：前景与挑战（英文）-2019.6-185页.pdf

Pathways to Reengagement:Bringing At-Risk,Out-of-School Youth Back into Education focuses on a social and global problem 200million adolescents and youth are out of school,live in adverse life circumstances,and face multiple disadvantages.It analyzes the available evidence for what works,how,and why for reengaging and retaining these young people in education.The study further explores for whom and in what contexts the identified interventions can be effective,considering variations in both individual and contextual characteristics of the targeted youth.Thisliterature review and synthesized findings can be useful to build a broad theory of change with the aim of guiding local policy and programming for designing contextualized interventions for education reengagement.INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN FOCUSPort Development and Competition in East and Southern AfricaProspects and ChallengesMartin Humphreys,Aiga Stokenberga,Matias Herrera Dappe,Atsushi Iimi,and Olivier HartmannPort Development and Competition in East and Southern AfricaProspects and ChallengesINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN FOCUSMartin Humphreys,Aiga Stokenberga,Matias Herrera Dappe,Atsushi Iimi,and Olivier Hartmann 2019 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433Telephone:202-473-1000;Internet:www.worldbank.orgSome rights reserved1 2 3 4 22 21 20 19Books in this series are published to communicate the results of Bank research,analysis,and operational experience with the least possible delay.The extent of language editing varies from book tobook.This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions.The findings,interpre-tations,and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank,its Board of Executive Directors,or the governments they represent.The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work.The boundaries,colors,denominations,and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank,all of which are specifically reserved.Rights and PermissionsThis work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license(CC BY 3.0 IGO)http:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo.Under the Creative Commons Attribution license,you are free to copy,distribute,transmit,and adapt this work,including for commercial purposes,under the following conditions:AttributionPlease cite the work as follows:Humphreys,Martin,Aiga Stokenberga,Matias Herrera Dappe,Atsushi Iimi,and Olivier Hartmann.2019.Port Development and Competition in East and Southern Africa:Prospects and Challenges.International Development in Focus.Washington,DC:WorldBank.doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1410-5 License:Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGOTranslationsIf you create a translation of this work,please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation.The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation.AdaptationsIf you create an adaptation of this work,please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank.Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank.Third-party contentThe World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content con-tained within the work.The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties.The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you.If you wish to re-use a component of the work,it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner.Examples of components can include,but are not limited to,tables,figures,or images.All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications,The World Bank Group,1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433,USA;e-mail:pubrightsworldbank.org.ISBN:978-1-4648-1410-5DOI:10.1596/978-1-4648-1410-5Cover photo:mtcurado/.Used with permission;further permission required for reuse.Cover design:Debra Naylor/Naylor Design Inc.iiiForeword by Guangzhe Chen viiForeword by Deborah L.Wetzel ixAcknowledgments xiAbout the Authors xiiiAbbreviations xv Overview 1The main findings 2Notes 5References 6CHAPTER 1:Introduction 7Why was this study undertaken?7An outline of the report 8Note 10Reference 10CHAPTER 2:The Role of the Port in International Trade 11African economic growth 11The growth and geography of African trade 12The cost of trade 13The role of the maritime port 14Note 15References 15CHAPTER 3:The Port Sector in East and Southern Africa 17A regional perspective 17Overview of the main ports 18Regional trends in traffic 39Ongoing and planned development 41Conclusions 48Notes 48References 49CHAPTER 4:The Performance of the Individual Ports 51Spatial and operational efficiency 51Maritime access and connectivity 54Technical efficiency 62Notes 65References 65Contentsiv|PORT DEvELOPMENT AND COMPETITION IN EAST AND SOUTHERN AFRICACHAPTER 5:The Challenges Facing the Ports in ESA 67Trends in the shipping industry 67Limited vertical or horizontal integration 80The problem of landside access 82Weaknesses in the institutional framework 91Insufficient use of modern IT systems 103Inadequate stakeholder engagement 106Conclusions 107Notes 107References 108CHAPTER 6:The Prospects for the ESA Ports 111Introduction 111Predicted demand growth 111Competitive position of the ports 113Determinants of port choice 117Forecast demand for the individual ports 121Implications for the individual ports 129Conclusions 130Note 130References 131CHAPTER 7:Conclusions and Recommendations 133The main findings 133The specific recommendations for each port 139References 153APPENDIX A:The Review of the Institutional Framework 155Boxes5.1 Facilitating modal switching in the port of Rotterdam 835.2 Portcity interface:Road congestion reduction policies 905.3 Addressing the portcity interface:The case of Durban and East London 915.4 National policy statement for ports(United Kingdom)935.5 The port community system(PCS)in the NetherlandsPortbase 105Figures4.1 Average vessel turnaround time in days,2016 524.2 Average quay productivity,2016 534.3 Average quay productivity,2016 534.4 Dwell time and truck turnaround time for containers,2016 544.5 LSBCI by country(exports and imports,weighted by value)574.6 Average LSBCI by port ordered by incoming routes for direct routes,2015 584.7 Average LSBCI by port ordered by incoming services for indirect routes,2015 594.8 Average waiting time,2015 604.9 Effective average waiting time,2015 604.10 Ratio of container berth capacity usage,2014 624.11 Ratio of depth capacity usage,2014 624.12 Average technical efficiency,by port,among ESA ports,200817 655.1 Far EastEurope capacity share by alliance 695.2 Shipping call pattern(containers),201316,group 1 725.3 Shipping call pattern(containers),201316,group 2 735.4 Shipping call pattern(general cargo)745.5 Shipping call pattern(liquid bulk),group 2 755.6 Shipping call pattern(liquid bulk),group 3 76Contents|v5.7 Shipping call pattern(Ro-Ro),group 1 775.8 Shipping call pattern(Ro-Ro),group 2 775.9 Relationship between port charges and locations where they are incurred 1006.1 East and Southern African ports demand forecast up to 2050 1126.2 Expected regional growth in general cargo,liquid bulk,dry bulk,and vehicle demand,compared to total regional capacity 1136.3 East and Southern African ports market share,2050 128Maps1.1 Ports included in the study 93.1 Location of Djibouti port 183.2 Location of Berbera port 203.3 Location of Mombasa port 213.4 Location of Lamu port 233.5 Location of Dar es Salaam port 243.6 Location of Zanzibar port 253.7 Location of Moroni port 273.8 Location of Toamasina port 283.9 Location of Mahajanga port 293.10 Location of Port Louis port 313.11 Location of Nacala port 333.12 Location of Beira port 343.13 Location of Maputo port 363.14 Location of Durban port 373.15 Location of East London port 384.1 The LSBCI for the ESA countries,2016 565.1 Median border wait times in early 2018 885.2 Drive time isochrones to African ports 896.1 Gateway ports in the southern cone 1196.2 Geographic distribution of shipment origins according to shipment weight 120Photo3.1 Port of East London car terminal 47Tables3.1 Traffic composition and volume,Djibouti,201216 193.2 Traffic composition and volume,Berbera,201216 203.3 Traffic composition and volume,Mombasa,201216 223.4 Traffic composition and volume,Dar es Salaam,201216 243.5 Traffic composition and volume,Zanzibar,201216 263.6 Traffic composition and volume,Moroni,201216 273.7 Traffic composition and volume,Toamasina,201216 293.8 Traffic composition and volume,Mahajanga,201216 303.9 Traffic composition and volume,Port Louis,201216 323.10 Traffic composition and volume,Nacala,201216 333.11 Traffic composition and volume,Beira,201216 353.12 Traffic composition and volume,Maputo,201216 363.13 Traffic composition and volume,Durban,201216 383.14 Traffic composition and volume,East London,201216 394.1 Maritime access indicators,2016 555.1 Port management models 985.2 Framework for the assessment of port sector functions 995.3 Preferred port tariff structures 1016.1 Transhipment assessment 126A.1 Assessment of country policy framework in the port sector 156vi|PORT DEvELOPMENT AND COMPETITION IN EAST AND SOUTHERN AFRICAA.2 Overview of institutional roles and responsibilities in the port sector 157A.3 International maritime organization convention and agreement ratifications by countries in the study region 161A.4 Assessment of the legal and regulatory framework of the port sector 163A.5 Overview of the tariff structure applied in each port 165viiInternational trade patterns have changed markedly in recent years,in terms of both trade partners and volumes.Over the past decade,Africas trade has slowly trended away from developed countries and toward emerging economies.Whereas Western European countries accounted for the bulk of Africas trade in the late 20th century,countries like China,India,Indonesia,Russia,and Turkey have since grown in importance as export destinations for the resource-rich economies.Emerging economies have also become origins of a significant share of imports for nearly all African countries,the total trade of the latter with China increasing twenty-fold in the last two decades.The changing trade relationships and needs require that Africas external transport connections evolve as well.The changing structure and intensity of international trade is increasing the regions infrastructure needs and demand for more specialized transport and logistics services at the maritime gateways and on the key trading corridors:Africa has 16 landlocked developing countries,which represent 30 percent of the regions population,and which are entirely dependent on the key trading corridors through neighbors for access to the sea.Trade costs for these countries tend to exceed the global average 3 to 4 times.In some of these countries,transport costs represent upwards of a quarter of the final price of goods,including crucial production inputs such as fertilizer and fuel.Connections to gateway ports are key to allow these countries to engage in global trade and value chains.In other words,East and Southern Africas ports are the nodes of entry not only to their coastal host countries but also the landlocked hinterland.Investments in ports will have implications far beyond the port gates.Against this backdrop,the existing port facilities and current operational practices in the East and Southern Africa region are inadequate,with insufficient capacity to serve not only their coastal countries,but also the hinterland of landlocked nations.The visible result has been high ship waiting times,high berth occupancies,congestion on both the land and maritime side,and increased costs.East and Southern Africa now stand at a pivotal moment.The accelerating growth of its consumer class is rapidly increasing the demand for imported goods and,hence,the need for improvements in containerized cargo transport services that would allow delivering the goods efficiently and at minimum cost.New discoveries of oil and gas resources have the potential to transform regional Forewordviii|PORT DEvELOPMENT AND COMPETITION IN EAST AND SOUTHERN AFRICAmarkets,provide significant revenues for government,and improve living standards.They will also require further investment in infrastructure capacity to support exploitation,some of which might be quite urgent.However,this growth and prosperity will require not only new infrastructure on both the maritime and landside,but also policy reforms,the greater use of specialized privateoperators,and the leveraging of private investment,both to deliver transport infrastructure andto ensure its efficient use.This book assesses the capacity expansion needs,the operating efficiency,and the landside access gaps of the fifteen main ports in East and Southern Africa within the context of these broader global and regional trends.In doing so,it provides detailed policy recommendations for each of the ports regarding the needed port and access infrastructure,the port sector regulations,and the institutional and management approaches to port operation and development.The World Bank looks forward to working closely with member countries,other development partners,and the private sector to deliver solutions and results that will help bring the regions development vision to life.Guangzhe ChenSenior Director,TransportThe World BankixOver the last two decades,the countries of East and Southern Africa(ESA)have taken concrete steps to improve the efficiency of their transport networks and to reduce the costs of trade.These actions have included significant physical invest-ment in the main regional corridors,increased attention to intermodal connec-tivity,and implementation of trade facilitation measures to enable cross-border trade and to smooth the intraregional movement of labor.These efforts have also led to improvements in the regions performance as evaluated by the interna-tional Logistics Performance Index,with most ESA countries climbing in the ranking relative to their global peers.Today,the region is better connected and more resilient to economic shocks than it was at the turn of the century.Improved connectivity and reduced trade costs have contributed to