瑞信-亚太地区-科技行业-亚洲半导体行业反馈：未来5G芯片的生产将爆发存储器需求疲软-2019.9.12-62页.pdf

DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES,ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS,LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS.US Disclosure:Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.12 September 2019Asia Pacific/JapanEquity ResearchTechnology Technology sector COMMENTResearch AnalystsHideyuki Maekawa81 3 4550 9723hideyuki.maekawacredit-Akinori Kanemoto81 3 4550 7363akinori.kanemotocredit-Mika Nishimura81 3 4550 7369mika.nishimuracredit-Yoshiyasu Takemura 81 3 4550 7358yoshiyasu.takemuracredit-Sayaka Shimonishi81 3 4550 7364sayaka.shimonishicredit-Daisuke Tanimoto81 3 4550 7371daisuke.tanimotocredit-Asia Feedback(Semiconductor/SPE):Next fanfare over 5G chip production;underlying memory demand weakEvent:From late August through early September we carried out an Asia market survey.We found nothing that would change our cautious view of the fundamentals aside from upbeat 5G chip production plans for 2020.The majority opinion among survey respondents was that 4Q 2019 and 1Q 2020 could see a pullback following 3Q supply chain trends that exceeded underlying demand,such as front-loading ahead of tariff hikes due to the USChina trade dispute and restocking due to Japans restrictions on exports to Korea.In a sharp divergence from stock market expectations,virtually no industry respondents expected a recovery from the cycle trough,particularly in memory.The new positives confirmed by our survey are(1)plans to produce 500mn 5G smartphone chips in 2020,(2)Apple having application processor(AP)for new 2020 iPhone models entirely produced using 5nm processes,(3)plans to launch a smartphone with a five-lens camera in 2020,(4)the outlook for greater adoption in Chinese data centers of ARM server CPUs manufactured by HiSilicon,(5)the adoption of LP-DDR5 by the Galaxy S11 in spring 2020,with one model to come with 16GB,and(6)tight supplydemand conditions for ASICs for cryptocurrency mining.New negatives include(1)HiSilicons plan to halve LTE AP output in 4Q,(2)expected 4Q oversupply for mobile RAM resulting from a switch from server DRAM,(3)server DRAM pricing(32GB)below the$100 break-even point,(4)the emergence of structural issues with increasing smartphone NAND capacity as demand for 256 and 512GB NAND is weaker than NAND makers envisaged,and(5)the risk that NAND bit growth could be capped at 2025%in the future,which would obviate the need for new capacity expansion and mean only multilayer investment is needed.Other negatives include(6)NAND makers seem to be reducing their own inventories by forcing it on retailers,(7)an increase in operating loss margins for cSSD from 20%to 100%,(8)the indication from several NAND manufacturers that 3D NAND 96 will be short-lived with the focus shifting to 112/128-layer products,and(9)moves to halt investment in next-generation DRAM/NAND processes due to low ROI assumptions.We also note(10)TSMCs undetermined plans for 5nm expansion in 2Q 2020 onward,(11)the temporary peak in HiSilicons assembly investment in November,and(12)the lack of signs of the expected October recovery in Chinese air conditioner component demand.Investment implications:We maintain our cautious investment stance regarding the technology sector as a whole.We expect a greater correction than implied by seasonality from late 4Q 2019 through early 1Q 2020,due partly to a pullback after 3Q restocking demand.We continue to see upside for the 5G theme and expect attention to focus on related names such as Anritsu(6754)and Advantest(6857).While short-term memory prices can turn upward,we expect a pullback in 1Q 2020 that leads to share-price downside for companies such as Tokyo Electron(8035),Disco(6146),Advantest(6857),Tokyo Seimitsu(7729),and Micronics Japan(6871).12 September 2019Technology sector2Key chartsFigure 1:Projected capacity utilization for Taiwanese foundry 300mm/200mm lines(input basis)Figure 2:Potential growth in smartphone NAND capacity decreasing50%60%70%80%90%100%110%120%1Q102Q103Q104Q101Q112Q113Q114Q111Q122Q123Q124Q121Q132Q133Q134Q131Q142Q143Q144Q141Q152Q153Q154Q151Q162Q163Q164Q161Q172Q173Q174Q171Q182Q183Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q1950%60%70%80%90%100%110%120%Jan.Apr.Jul.Oct.Jan.Apr.Jul.Oct.Jan.Apr.Jul.Oct.Jan.Apr.Jul.Oct.Jan.Apr.Jul.Oct.Jan.Apr.Jul.Oct.Jan.Apr.Jul.Oct.Jan.Apr.Jul.Oct.Jan.Apr.Jul.Oct.Jan.Apr.Jul.Oct.2010201120122013201420152016201720182019TSMC Quarterly Utilization RatesMonthly Utilization rate(300/200mm)300mm(Input)200mm(Input)TSMC total utilization(sales)FORECAST0%20%40%60%80%100%120%1Q132Q133Q134Q131Q142Q143Q144Q141Q152Q153Q154Q151Q16E2Q16E3Q16E4Q16E1Q17E2Q17E3Q17E4Q17E1Q18E2Q18E3Q18E4Q18E1Q19E2Q19E3Q19E4Q19E1Q20E2Q20E3Q20E4Q20EMobile Phone Bit Growth(%)NAND Total Demand Bit Growth(%)Source:Credit Suisse estimatesSource:IDC,Credit Suisse estimatesFigure 3:DRAM supplydemand modelFigure 4:NAND supplydemand model 17%8%0%-8%7%4%-9%-13%(4.0)(3.0)(2.0)(1.0)0.01.02.03.04.05.0-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%1Q043Q041Q053Q051Q063Q061Q073Q071Q083Q081Q093Q091Q103Q101Q113Q111Q123Q121Q133Q131Q143Q141Q153Q151Q163Q161Q173Q171Q183Q181Q193Q191Q203Q20Excess Inventory(week)OversupplySupply shortage24%-2%-20%-7%14%5%-7%-8%(6.0)(4.0)(2.0)0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.0-25%-15%-5%5%15%25%35%1Q072Q073Q074Q071Q082Q083Q084Q081Q092Q093Q094Q091Q102Q103Q104Q101Q112Q113Q114Q111Q122Q123Q124Q121Q132Q133Q134Q131Q142Q143Q144Q141Q152Q153Q154Q151Q162Q163Q164Q161Q172Q173Q174Q171Q182Q183Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q20Excess Inventory(week)OversupplySupply shortageSource:Company data,Credit Suisse estimatesSource:Credit Suisse estimatesFigure 5:WFE capex forecasts(Japan team estimate)Figure 6:Development roadmap5G SoC single-chip 5.4 9.1 14.0 7.0 6.510.6 18.0 15.0 8.0 9.012.8 13.3 13.5 15.0 12.55.7 6.5 8.0 10.0 9.00.010.020.030.040.050.060.02004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019E2020EBn$DRAMNANDFoundryLogic/Others47.034.550.537.040.055G SoC2 Chips(modem+AP)1 Chip(Integratedchip of AP+Modem3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4QQualcommFlagshipSDM8652 chips with X55(TSMC 7nm Pro)MP(TSMC 7nm)SDM8752 chips with X60(TSMC 7nm Pro?)MP(Samsung 5nm EUV)High-endSM7250MP-only Sub-6(Samsung 7nm EUV)MP-mm-wave/sub-6(Samsung 7nm EUV)Middle-endSM6250MP(Samsung 7nm EUV or 8nm?)AppleFlagshipA142 chips with X55(TSMC 7nm Pro)MP(TSMC 5nm EUV)SamsungFlagship/High-endExynos 98252 chips with Exynos5100(Samsung 10nm)MP(Samsung 7nm EUV)Exynos 98302 chips with Exynos5123(Samsung 7nm EUV)MP(Samsung 7nm EUV)Exynos 9840?MP(Samsung 5nm EUV)Middle-endExynos 9630MP(Samsung 8nm)Exynos 9640?MP(Samsung 7nm EUV)HiSiliconFlagship/High-endKirin 9902 chips with Balong 5000(TSMC 7nm)MP(TSMC 7nm+EUV)Kirin 1000?(post-Kirin990)MP(TSMC 5nm EUV)Middle-endKirin820MP(TSMC 7nm+EUV?)MediatekFlagship/High-end5G SoC(Helio M70 built-in)MP(TSMC 7nm+EUV)Middle-end5G SoCMP(TSMC 7nm+EUV)20192020Source:Credit Suisse estimatesSource:SEMI,Credit Suisse estimates12 September 2019Technology sector3Table of contentsInvestment summary5Share price implications.5Valuation tables.8Executive summary11Noteworthy market feedback.115G smartphone chip production plans for 2020 reach 500mn units;pull-forward effects and restocking set to support memory chip demand in 3Q;capex poised for downturn in 2020.125G base stations,smartphone supply chain trends15Our view based on our survey.155G base stations.15Chinas 5G market.155G smartphones.16Application processors(AP).17Logic,foundry,CIS trends20Our views based on survey feedback.20Semiconductor capacity utilization.20Taiwan foundry,Korea LSI 7nm process,5nm mass-market&development trends.22CIS market and production trends24Our views based on survey feedback.24Data-center demand for memory26Our view based on the survey.26DRAM market trends27Our view based on our survey:Market upturn likely after 2Q 2020.27DRAM market outlook.27DRAM demand outlook.29DRAM supply outlook.33DRAM inventory trends.33DRAM price trends.33NAND market outlook36Our view based on our survey.36NAND pricing trends.37NAND demand trends.3812 September 2019Technology sector4NAND supply outlook.43NAND inventory trends.44NAND pricing outlook.453D NAND 9x/1XX mass production and development.47Front-end SPE market50Our view based on channel checks.50WFE market outlook.51Back-end SPE market outlook54Our view based on our survey.54Other areas56Our view based on our survey.56Cryptocurrency.56Home appliances/air conditioning.56Chinese auto-related.57Chinese sales agencies.57Others(power semiconductors,NB-IoT,LCDs,etc.).5712 September 2019Technology sector5Investment summaryShare price implicationsSemiconductors:Operating rates to peak in 3Q;visible risk of memory correction due to 3Q demand driven by front-loading and restocking;5G chip production very strongWe expect the 2019 peak for both 200mm and 300mm operating rates at Taiwanese foundries to fall short of 2018 due to the ongoing smartphone volume downtrend and weak automotive and industrial demand.Despite stock market expectations for an end to semiconductor inventory adjustments,the outlook for 4Q 2019 operating rates to decline for 300mm and remain flat for 200mm suggests that operating rates are unlikely to rise amid weak underlying demand.There is also a risk of inventory adjustments for LTE smartphones ahead of the shift to 5G handsets.Chinese local sales agents are also unwilling to take on inventories and there are no signs of restocking.Our survey therefore offers no confirmation of trends that exceed guidance by semiconductor companies or stock market expectations.Some respondents cited plans to produce 500mn 5G chips(modems and APs)for 5G smartphones in 2020,which should benefit companies in the 5G AP supply chain.Within our coverage,we would like to highlight Anritsu and Advantest,although they are not specifically semiconductor-related.We think expectations for memory prices to recover due to an increase in data center demand,NAND inventory cuts,and rising NAND prices are a misreading of the significant boost to 3Q demand from front-loading and restocking,and we see no cause for a bullish view on underlying demand.While US hyperscale demand is rising,it is doing so very gradually,and there are no signs of the kind of strong momentum seen in 2017 and 1H 2018;DRAM price competition is therefore continuing,and we are beginning to see 32GB prices below the$100 break-even.In NAND,there are signs of psychological warfare in price negotiations,with companies taking advantage of supply chain disruptions caused by Japans restrictions on exports to Korea and delays to the restart of operations following a power outage at Toshiba Memorys(TMC)Yokkaichi plant so that they can play up supply concerns and negotiate higher prices(mainly in retail).While OEM customers are objecting to price hikes,4Q ASP is set to rise as all NAND manufacturers(which are currently incurring operating losses)raise prices.However,restocking looks to be peaking in September,and after accounting for 4Q 2019 and 1Q 2020 demand trends,we expect a pullback in retail prices in 4Q and OEM prices in 1Q 2020.A return to profitability for NAND manufacturers is therefore likely to take until 2H 2020 or later.In our coverage,we think the risk remains of TMC write-downs at Toshiba,but confirmation of this will come following the end of FY3/20.However,if TMC quarterly earnings continue to decline we would expect this to cap share-price upside.We highlight our OUTPERFORM ratings on Anritsu,as noted above,and on Sony,which we expect to sustain strong earnings as its plants remain at full capacity due to the shift to multiple smartphone cameras and higher pixel counts for CIS.Semiconductor materials:300mm wafer demand to remain flat in 2020In the semiconductor materials sector,we think stock market expectations for a demand recovery are increasing given comments by GlobalWafers at our Asian Technology Conference that if 300mm wafer demand grows by 45%in 202021,oversupply should ease at end-2020 and supply shortages occur at end-2021.However,we expect 2020 300mm silicon wafer demand to remain flat due to(1)our forecast for Taiwanese foundry 300mm operating rates to continue declining from a 3Q 2019 peak through 1H 2020 as a result of a seasonal decline in iPhone demand and inventory adjustments for LTE smartphone APs,(2)the dependence of recent demand growth on restocking and other temporary factors,(3)the gradual nature of the recovery in data center demand despite Semiconductor demand low-key;risk of LTE smartphone inventory adjustment from 4G through mid-1Q CY20,ahead of 5GMax.500mn 5G chip output planned for CY20Temporary demand behind 3Q memory market upturn12 September 2019Technology sector6the end of inventory cuts,and(4)the natural attrition in DRAM output due to a lack of new investment to offset the loss of capacity resulting from process migration.SUMCO in particular faces the risk of an earnings miss caused by weak demand conditions at subsidiary Formosa SUMCO as well as by wafer market trends.In addition,limited investment in 96-layer 3D NAND and the potential for investment in an increase to 128 layers to come in 2H 2020 onward suggests that expected demand for KrF resist in thick film processes from end-2019 through 2020 at Tokyo Ohka Kogyo could prove limited,acting as a drag on FY12/20 earnings growth.Our order of preference in the semiconductor materials sector is JSR Shin-Etsu Chemical Tokyo Ohka Kogyo SUMCO(unchanged from three months ago).SPE:Foundry 5nm process investment to stall from 2Q 2020;reasons emerging to curb memory investment due to renewed ROI focusSPE sector stocks have risen sharply.Buying continues on the view that downside risk is limited due to signs of a bottom in memory prices,accelerating 5G semiconductor capex,cash flow,companies bullish market outlooks,and the stocks investment attractiveness versus other sectors.Given the lack of negative news in sight over the next 12 months,there is a considerable divergence between fundamentals and valuations despite the fact that sentiment is not deteriorating.We think the key issues of debate regarding the 2020 WFE market will be(1)whether there are new customers and demand in 5nm processes other than for high-end products from Apple and Huawei,(2)the ROI for memory process migration and multilayer investment,and(3)China investment in memory volume production.Regarding point(1),TSMC opted in July to invest in boosting 5nm/7nm process capacity,with equipment deliveries to peak in 4Q 2019 and 1Q 2020.The 5nm process in particular mainly supplies Apple and Huawei,but historically leading-edge process demand from the two companies suggests that around 50K wpm(wafers/mo.)of production capacity is ample,and no additional investment will be needed unless demand from new customers or Huawei increases.Ap