电力信息与通信技术ElectricPowerInformationandCommunicationTechnologyVol.21No.2Feb.2023第21卷第2期2023年2月www.dlxxtx.com基于FAHP的物元可拓电力通信网光缆段风险评估模型林金强1，李珍珍2，吴强1，盛丹红1，王政1（1.国网湖北省电力有限公司襄阳供电公司数字化工作部，湖北省襄阳市441200；2.国网湖北省电力有限公司襄阳供电公司枣阳供电公司，湖北省襄阳市441200）FAHP-basedMatter-elementExtensionRiskAssessmentModelforOpticalCableSectionofPowerCommunicationNetworkLINJinqiang1,LIZhenzhen2,WUQiang1,SHENGDanhong1,WANGZheng1(1.XiangyangPowerSupplyCompany,StateGridHubeiElectricPowerCo.,Ltd.,Xiangyang441200,HubeiProvince,China;2.ZaoyangPowerSupplyCompany,StateGridHubeiElectricPowerCo.,Ltd.,Xiangyang441200,HubeiProvince,China)摘要：为有效掌握电力通信网光缆段的风险状况，通过系统性分析电力光缆的风险致因机理，从电力光缆的运行指标、物理指标和环境指标3个方面建立了评估指标体系。基于模糊层次分析法和物元可拓理论构建了电力通信网光缆段的风险评估模型。以某供电公司的电力通信光缆为实例进行风险评估，结果表明：该模型能够定性和定量的分析每条光缆的风险等级，精准定位光缆段的薄弱环节，科学指导运维人员开展工作，为促进电网稳定运行具有重要的指导意义。关键词：电力通信网光缆段；模糊层次分析法；物元可拓理论；风险评估ABSTRACT:Tolearntheriskstatusofpowercommunicationopticalcableeffectively,anevaluationindexsystemisestablishedfromthreeaspects:theoperationindex,thephysicalindexandtheenvironmentalindexofthepoweropticalcablebysystematicallyanalyzingtheriskfactorsofpoweropticalcables.Basedonfuzzyanalytichierarchyprocessandmatter-elementextensiontheory,theriskassessmentmodelforopticalcablesectionofpowercommunicationnetworkisconstructed.Takingthepowercommunicationopticalcableofapowersupplycompanyasanexampletocarryriskassessment,theresultsshowthatthemodelcanqualitativelyandquantitativelyanalyzetherisklevelofeachopticalcable,accuratelylocatetheweaklinksoftheopticalcablesection,andscientificallyguidetheoperationandmaintenancepersonneltocarryoutwork,andhasimportantguidingsignificancetopromotethestableoperationofpowergrid.KEYWO...
