THEPENGUINPRESSPublishedbythePenguinGroupPenguinGroup(USA)Inc.,375HudsonStreet,NewYork,NewYork10014,U.S.A.PenguinGroup(Canada),90EglintonAvenueEast,Suite700,Toronto,Ontario,CanadaM4P2Y3(adivisionofPearsonPenguinCanadaInc.)•Pen-guinBooksLtd,80Strand,LondonWC2R0RL,England•PenguinIreland,25St.Stephen’sGreen,Dublin2,Ireland(adivisionofPenguinBooksLtd)•PenguinBooksAustraliaLtd,250CamberwellRoad,Camberwell,Victoria3124,Australia(adivisionofPearsonAustraliaGroupPtyLtd)•PenguinBooksIndiaPvtLtd,11CommunityCentre,PanchsheelPark,NewDelhi–110017,India•PenguinGroup(NZ),67ApolloDrive,Rosedale,Auckland0632,NewZealand(adivisionofPearsonNewZealandLtd)•PenguinBooks(SouthAfrica)(Pty)Ltd,24SturdeeAvenue,Rosebank,Johannesburg2196,SouthAfricaPenguinBooksLtd,RegisteredOffices:80Strand,LondonWC2R0RL,EnglandFirstpublishedin2012byThePenguinPress,amemberofPenguinGroup(USA)Inc.Copyright©NateSilver,2012AllrightsreservedIllustrationcreditsFigure4-2:CourtesyofDr.TimParker,UniversityofOxfordFigure7-1:From“1918Influenza:TheMotherofAllPandemics”byJefferyTaubenbergerandDavidMorens,EmergingInfectiousDiseaseJournal,vol.12,no.1,January2006,CentersforDiseaseControlandPreventionFigures9-2,9-3A,9-3C,9-4,9-5,9-6and9-7:ByCburnett,WikimediaCommonsFigure12-2:CourtesyofDr.J.ScottArmstrong,TheWhartonSchool,UniversityofPennsylvaniaLIBRARYOFCONGRESSCATALOGINGINPUBLICATIONDATASilver,Nate.Thesignalandthenoise:whymostpredictionsfailbutsomedon’t/NateSilver.p.cm.Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.ISBN978-1-101-59595-41.Forecasting.2.Forecasting—Methodology.3.Forecasting—History.4.Bayesianstatisticaldecisiontheory.5.Knowledge,Theoryof.I.Title.CB158.S542012519.5'42—dc232012027308Whiletheauthorhasmadeeveryefforttoprovideaccuratetelephonenum-bers,Internetaddresses,andothercontactinformationatthetimeofpublic-ation,neitherthepublishernortheauthorassumesanyresponsibilityforer-rors,orforchangesthatoccurafterpublication.Further,publisherdoesnothaveanycontroloveranddoesnotassumeanyresponsibilityforauthor...
