6.2连锁企业销售预测6.2.1、销售预测步骤6.2.2、销售预测的一般方法移动平均法指数平滑法一元线性回归法6.2.1、销售预测步骤1、根据预测的任务确定预测的目标2、收集和分析有关资料和情报3、选择预测方法并进行预测4、分析评价5、提交预测报告6.2.2销售预测的一般方法1、移动平均法基本思想是：根据时间序列资料、逐项推移，依次计算包含一定项数的序时平均值，以反映长期趋势的方法。nynttttt1211如果进行二次平移，则：nyyyymnttttt1211月份销售额月份销售额月份销售额120005310092200213506175010277531950715501123504197581300某品牌餐刀1-11月份的销售量入下表6-2所示，试运用一次移动平均法预测12月份的销售量。表6-2某品牌餐刀1~11月的销售量月份实际销售额一次移动平均（n=4)ete212000213503195041975531001818.75-1281.251641602617502093.75343.75118164.1715502193.75643.75414414.1813002093.75793.75630039.1922001925-275756251027751700-107511556251123501956.25-393.75155039.1122156.25MSE=598644n=4时的预测月份实际销售额一次移动平均（n=5)ete212000213503195041975531000617502075325105625715502025475225625813002065765585225922001935-265702251027751980-7956320251123501915-435189225122035MSE=258278.6n=5时的预测从这两次预测中，可知n=5时预测要好于n=4时。2、指数平滑法前期的预测值实际需求值）1(tttFAF)1(1指数平滑法的基本公式是：下一期的预测值=月份销售额月份销售额月份销售额151.3548.2942.8235.7654.61045.8327.97521143.9432.3847.51247.2某企业1~12月销售数据，求1月份的销售额TXtFt(a=0.3)Ytetet2051.3151.351.351.300235.746.6251.3-15.6243.36327.941.00446.62-18.72350.4384432.338.392841.004-8.70475.75962548.241.3349638.39289.807296.18117654.645.3144741.3349613.26504175.961375247.3201345.314476.68552844.69628847.547.3740947.320130.179870.032353942.846.0018647.37409-4.5740920.922311045.845.941346.00186-0.201860.0407491143.945.3289145.9413-2.04134.1669251247.245.8902445.328911.8710873.5009651345.89024MSE=84.588343.0TXtFt(a=0.8)Ytetet2051.3151.351.351.300235.738.8251.3-15.6243.36327.930.08438.82-10.92119.2464432.331.856830.0842.2164.910656548.244.9313631.856816....
