69【卫生资源】卫生经济研究2023年9月第40卷第9期总第437期广西全科医生发展现状及需求预测研究基于GM(1,1)模型和人力人口比值法赵越张茶鑫，苏奕成,左延莉？[摘要】目的：分析广西全科医生发展现状，预测“十四五"时期全科医生需求量。方法：对2013一2020年广西全科医生数据进行描述性分析，运用GM(1,1)模型和人力人口比值法预测2021—2025年全科医生需求量。结果：2013一2020年，广西全科医生数量增长较快，专业化水平不断提升，预计2025年每万人口全科医生数将超过政策规划目标值；但截至2020年每万人口全科医生数仍低于全国平均水平，不同机构、不同地市全科医生配置不均衡。结论：发挥政府主导作用，强化全科医生队伍建设；提升全科医生基层就业意愿；优化全科医生区域配置，加大对欠发达地区的政策倾斜力度。[关键词]全科医生；预测研究;GM(1,1)模型；人力人口比值法中图分类号：R19文献标识码：A文章编号：1004-7778(2023)09-0069-04StudyontheDevelopmentStatusandDemandPredictionofGeneralPractitionersinGuangxi-BasedonGM(1,1)ModelandHumanPopulationRatioMethodZHAOYue,ZHANGXin,SUYicheng,ZUOYanliAbstract:ObjectiveToanalyzethecurrentdevelopmentstatusofgeneralpractitionersinGuangxi,andpredictthedemandforgeneralpractitionersduringthe14thFiveYearPlan.MethodsDescriptiveanalysiswasconductedonthedataofgeneralpractitionersinGuangxifrom2013to2020,andtheGM(1,1)modelandhumanpopulationratiomethodwereusedtopredictthedemandforgeneralpractitionersfrom2021to2025.ResultsDuringtheperiodfrom2013to2020,thenumberofgeneralpractitionersinGuangxiincreasedrapidlyandthelevelofspecializationcon-tinuedtoimprove.Itwasexpectedthatthenumberofgeneralpractitionersper10000peoplein2025willexceedthetargetvalueofpolicyplan-ning.However,thenumberofgeneralpractitionersper10000peoplewasstilllowerthanthenationalaveragein2020,andtheallocationofgen-eralpractitionersindfferentinstitutionsandcitieswasuneven.ConclusionItisnecessarytoplaytheleadingroleofthegovernmentandstrength-entheconstructionofthegeneralpractitionerteam,enhancethewillingnessofgeneralpractitionerstoworkatthegrass-rootslevel,andoptimizetheregionalallocationofgeneralpractitionersandincreasepolicypreferencesfor...
