12-forecast-V6.06(M54)(1).pptxVIP免费

Copyright2009JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.BeniAsllaniUniversityofTennesseeatChattanooga预测Forecasting•Russell&TaylorOMed6•Ch12-Forecasting•Chase,Aquilano&Jacobs,OMed.11•Ch13-DemandManagementLectureOutlineStrategicRoleofForecastinginSupplyChainManagementComponentsofForecastingDemandTimeSeriesMethodsForecastAccuracyTimeSeriesForecastingUsingExcelRegressionMethods预测的战略作用需求预测的构成要素时间系列法预测准确性EXCEL应用回归法Copyright2009JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.12-2Copyright2009JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.12-3ForecastingPredictingthefuture预测未来Qualitativeforecastmethods定性预测方法Subjective主观Quantitativeforecastmethods定量预测方法basedonmathematicalformulas数学公式ForecastingandSupplyChainManagement预测与供应链管理Copyright2009JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.12-4ForecastingandSupplyChainManagement预测与供应链管理AccurateforecastingdetermineshowmuchinventoryacompanymustkeepatvariouspointsalongitssupplychainContinuousreplenishmentsupplierandcustomersharecontinuouslyupdateddatatypicallymanagedbythesupplierreducesinventoryforthecompanyspeedscustomerdeliveryVariationsofcontinuousreplenishmentquickresponseJIT(just-in-time)VMI(vendor-managedinventory)stocklessinventory供应链上的库存预测持续补充变异波动Copyright2009JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.12-5ForecastingQualityManagementAccuratelyforecastingcustomerdemandisakeytoprovidinggoodqualityserviceStrategicPlanningSuccessfulstrategicplanningrequiresaccurateforecastsoffutureproductsandmarkets质量管理准确的需求预测有利于提供高质量的服务战略规划产品市场需求预测Copyright2009JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.12-6TypesofForecastingMethods需求预测的构成因素Copyright2009JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.12-7Copyright2009JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.12-8TypesofForecastingMethods需求预测的构成因素Dependontimeframe时间期限demandbehavior需求行为causesofbehavior动机TimeFrame时间期限IndicateshowfarintothefutureisforecastShort-tomid-rangeforecasttypicallyencompassestheimmediatefuturedailyuptotwoyearsLong-rangeforecast...