Therehavebeenmanywarningsthatclimatechangecouldmakeitmoredifficulttogrowfood.Butanewtoolmayallowfarmerstoglimpsethefutureandprepareforwhatliesahead.Scientistssayclimatechangemaysignificantlyaltergrowingconditionsformostfarmers.Butthatdoesn'tmeanthoseconditionswillbeunknownorunexpected.Theysaythereareplentyofexamplesofhowfarmershavealreadyadaptedtohighertemperatures.ResearchersattheCGIARResearchProgramonClimateChangehavereleasedareportcalled:ClimateAnalogues–FindingTomorrow'sAgricultureToday."Climateanaloguesareawayoffindingthefuturetoday.Wetalkabouthowclimatewillchangeandit'squiteanabstractideatosay,well,thisplacewillbetwodegreeswarmer.Buttheseclimateanaloguesareaninterestingwayofactuallyseeingwhatthatreallyfeelslike.So,youcanfindthefutureofasitewhentemperatureishigher,forexample,orprecipitationisdifferent,andyoucanfindthattodaysomewhereelse,"saidDr.AndyJarvisofCGIAR.ItwillbeherelikeitisthereForexample,researchersstudiedtemperaturechangesprojectedtooccurby2030forShanghai,China,andLosAngeles,CaliforniaandDurban,SouthAfrica,siteofthelatestU.N.climatechangeconference."IfyoulookforDurban's2030climate,youcanactuallyfindquitealargeareathathasverysimilarclimatestowhatweprojectfor2030forDurbaninArgentinaandUruguay,"saidJarvis.Thatinformationcouldbeveryvaluabletofarmers."Durban,forexample,hasalotofveryhighproductivitysugarcanearoundit.Therearealsoalotoffarmerswhodependonmaizeforsubsistence.AndsoyoucangotoArgentinaandUruguaywheretheyhaveestablishedsugarcaneandestablishedmaizecropsandunderstandreallywhatisitthatthey'redoingthatmakesthemwelladaptedtotheirclimate.AndsothatknowledgecanthenfeedintofarmersinDurbanandhelpthemadapt,"hesaid.TheclimateanaloguessaythatthesoybeangrowingareanearShanghaiwillcorrespondtomajorsoybeanareasintheeasternUnitedStates,ArgentinaandSouthAfrica.Theinformationcanbeusedtohelpensurefoodsecurity,especiallywiththepopulationexpectedtosoarinthecomingdecades."Youhaveclimatechangeaffectingourabilitytoproducefood,butatthesametimepopulation[is]ontheincrease.Wejustwentpast7billion.Projectionsfor9billionin2050.It'snotjustpopulationincrease,butit'schangingconsumerpatterns,aswell.So,theconsumptionofmilkandmeat,forexample,isontheincreaseincountrieslikeChina.Sothat'sputtingtremendousdemandsonthefoodsystem,"hesaid.FarmersneedtoadaptJarvissaidtherearenomagicsolutionstoclimatechange,sogovernmentsneedtoreachalegallybindingagreementongreenhousegasemissions.However,Jarvissaysthat'snotenough.Farmersneedtoadapt,especiallysmallholderfarmers."SmallholderpoorfarmersinAfricaarethosethataremostvulnerable.Theyhave[the]leastcapacitytoadapt.Ironically,they'retheonesthatareleastreallyresponsibleforclimatechange,buttheonesthataregoingtobemostaffected,"hesaid.Jarvisaddedthatfarmersareonthefrontlinesofclimatechange,addinghenevermetonewhodoubtedclimatechangewastakingplace.
