亚太地区煤炭逐步淘汰与能源转型途径（英文）-ESCAP.pdf

AND ENERGY TRANSITION PATHWAYS FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFICCOAL PHASE OUT*The designations employed and the presentation of material on this map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country,territory,city or area or of its authorities,or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.The shaded areas of the map indicate ESCAP members and associate members.*The Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific(ESCAP)serves as the United Nations regional hub,promoting cooperation among countries to achieve inclusive and sustainable development.The largest regional intergovernmental platform with 53 member States and 9 associate members,ESCAP has emerged as a strong regional think-tank offering countries sound analytical products that shed insight into the evolving economic,social and environmental dynamics of the region.The Commissions strategic focus is to deliver on the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development,which it does by reinforcing and deepening regional cooperation and integration to advance connectivity,financial cooperation and market integration.The research and analysis undertaken by ESCAP,coupled with its policy advisory services,capacity building and technical assistance to governments aims to support countries sustainable and inclusive development ambitions.AND ENERGY TRANSITION PATHWAYS FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFICCOAL PHASE OUT United Nations publication Copyright United Nations 2021 All rights reserved ST/ESCAP/2936This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder,provided that the source is acknowledged.The ESCAP Publications Office would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source.Use may not be made of this publication for resale or any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission.Applications for such permission,with a statement of the purpose and extent of reproduction,should be addressed to the Secretary of the Publications Board,United Nations,New York.The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country,territory,city or area,or of its authorities,or concerning the delimitation of its frontier or boundaries.References to dollars($)are to United States dollars unless otherwise stated.Photo creditsCover Neuwieser/F I photo#586163548page 16 I photo#1192528175page 26 I photo#586073426COAL PHASE OUT AND ENERGY TRANSITION PATHWAYS FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFICContentsAcknowledgement vExecutive summary viIntroduction 1Chapter 1 Current situation,trends and expansion plans 31.1 Current role of coal for power generation in the Asia-Pacific region 31.2 Planned coal fired power generation 61.3 Emissions from coal power generation not consistent with the Paris Agreement 141.4 Impact of COVID-19 crisis on policies for phasing out of coal in the South-East Asia subregion 19Chapter 2 Drivers of coal expansion in the region 212.1 Asian countries are joining the global trend away from coal 212.2 Drivers of coal expansion in Asia and the Pacific 22Chapter 3 How can trends be reversed pathways for a transition to clean energy 273.1 Paris Agreement compatible energy transition 273.2 Renewable energy potential 353.3 Comparison of costs for renewable energy and storage vs.fossil fuel technologies 373.4 Integration to maximise benefits from renewable energy potential 40Chapter 4 Benefits of a transition from coal towards renewable-based efficient energy system 414.1 Access to clean and affordable energy 414.2 Employment 424.3 Health,reduced air and water pollution,and impact on water scarcity 424.4 Avoided risk of stranded investments 434.5 Energy security and independence 434.6 Environmental degradation 434.7 Land use 444.8 Shifting investment opportunities for a green COVID-19 recovery 454.9 Economic impacts of climate change 46Chapter 5 Conclusion and recommendations 51References 59Annexes 64Annex 1 Asia-Pacific coal fleet pipeline 64Annex 2 Climate change impacts 65ii List of boxesBox 1 The additional burden of COVID-19 44List of figuresFigure 1 CO2 emissions from coal by sector 3Figure 2 Coal generation as percentage of national electricity generation in 2019 4Figure 3 Current coal fleet and pipeline in Asia-Pacific region by status and technology 8Figure 4 Current coal fleet and pipeline(left)and age distribution(right)in the North and Central Asia(NCA)subregion by status and technology 10Figure 5 Current coal fleet and pipeline in countries in the East and North-East subregion(ENEA)with stable or contracting coal capacity,by status and combustion technology 11Figure 6 Current coal fleet and pipeline in China,by status and combustion technology 12Figure 7 Coal capacity by status and technology,in countries in the South and South-West Asia(SSWA)subregion with high expansion plans compared to current capacity 12Figure 8 Current coal fleet and pipeline in India by status and technology 13Figure 9 Coal capacity by status and technology,(left)and age distribution(right)for countries in the South-East Asian(SEA)subregion(all categories)13Figure 10 Estimated emissions over time resulting from current coal-fired power generation capacity in the Asia-Pacific region 14Figure 11 Estimated emissions over time resulting from current coal-fired power generation capacity in the North and Central Asia subregion 15Figure 12 Estimated emissions over time resulting from current coal-fired power generation capacity in the countries of the East and North-East Asia subregion with stable or contracting coal capacity 17Figure 13 Estimated emissions over time resulting from current coal-fired power generation capacity in the China 17Figure 14 Estimated emissions over time resulting from current coal-fired power generation capacity in India 18Figure 15 Estimated emissions over time resulting from current coal-fired power generation capacity in the countries of the South and South-West Asia subregion with high capacity expansion plans(Turkey,Pakistan,Bangladesh and Sri Lanka)18Figure 16 Estimated emissions over time resulting from current coal-fired power generation capacity in the countries of the South-East Asia subregion 19Figure 17 Potential coal generation in Non-OECD Asia against Paris Agreement benchmarks 28Figure 18 Levelized cost of electricity a comparison between fossil fuels and renewable sources,2019 37Figure 19 Shift in energy investments from current policy to a 1.5 pathway 45Figure 20 Projected changes in GDP per capita in subregions due to changes in global mean annual temperature 48Figure 21 Projected GDP per capita gains from limiting 1.5C versus 2C warming by subregion 49Figure 22 Projected changes in climate extremes over five Asia-Pacific subregions 67iiiCOAL PHASE OUT AND ENERGY TRANSITION PATHWAYS FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFICList of tablesTable 1 Share of coal in power generation and capacity in the Asia-Pacific region by economy 5Table 2 The coal pipeline in the Asia-Pacific region:Current expansion plans and recent changes 7Table 3 Country groupings by Asia-Pacific subregion and coal capacity expansion categories 9Table 4 Providers and recipients of the highest amount of G20 international public finance for coal,2016-2017,annual average(million United States dollars)24Table 5 Share of unabated coal-fired power in the electricity sector for 1.5C compatible pathways at global,regional and national levels 33Table 6 Benchmarks for the share of renewable energy for power generation for 1.5C Paris Agreement compatible pathways at the global,regional and national levels 34Table 7 Global and regional Weighted Average LCOE(2019$/MWh):Selected countries and regions 39Table 8 Coal fleet capacity pipeline in Asia-Pacific by combustion technology and fuel type 64Table 9 Climate impact indicators 66Table 10 Extreme indicator for specific ESCAP member States 68iv AcknowledgementThis report was developed by the Energy Division of ESCAP in partnership with Climate Analytics under the overall direction and guidance of Hongpeng Liu,Director of the Energy Division,and Michael Williamson Section Chief of the Energy Division.Kaveh Zahedi,Deputy Executive Secretary provided overall review and guidance to finalize the report.The principal authors from Climate Analytics were Anna Chapman,Ursula Fuentes,Gaurav Ganti,Bill Hare,Katharina Lehmann-Uschner,Fahad Saeed and Jessie Ruth Schleypen.The main contributors from the Energy Division include Michael Williamson and David Ferrari.Peer review and valuable suggestions were provided by Matthew Gidden and Deborah Ramalope and Xunpeng Shi.Robert Oliver edited the manuscript.The cover and design layout were created by Lowil Espada.Prachakporn Sophon coordinated layout design and proof reading.Mitchell Hsieh,Katie Elles,Kavita Sukanandan,Christophe Manshoven,Sompot Suphutthamongkhon and Chavalit Boonthanom of the ESCAP Communications and Knowledge Management Section,coordinated the dissemination of the report.vCOAL PHASE OUT AND ENERGY TRANSITION PATHWAYS FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFICExecutive summaryThe Asia-Pacific region,more than any other global region,is highly reliant on fossil fuels.How it transitions away from fossil fuels will be a pivotal issue for Asia-Pacific and the world in the coming years,in light of the current and future climate impacts and the sustainable development benefits possible through an energy transition.This paper aims to provide insights into how the region can transition away from coal to a renewable-based efficient energy system compatible with the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs).The study brings together a systematic review of literature and data to provide a background on the current situation as well as drivers of coal expansion in the region,options for a clean energy transition and the benefits of a transition,to highlight policy options.The paper reviews the data on coals share in the Asia-Pacific regions power generation and capacity,and assesses the benefits of a transition away from coal.It presents an analysis on the impact of greenhouse gas emissions at the regional level as well as regional impacts of global warming,illustrating the importance for the region of achieving the Paris Agreement goals.The paper concludes with a review of proven policies based on existing literature,evaluating their potential application in the region to provide recommendations for Governments to adopt best practices.Coal generation is still expanding in Asia-Pacific against the trend in other regions The Asia-Pacific region has a very large share of current global coal capacity and generation as well as expansion plans.A total of 27 countries in the Asia-Pacific region account for about 76percent of current global coal generation capacity and for almost the entire(94percent)global pipeline1 of coal-fired power plants under construction,planned or announced.The countries in the South and South West Asia subregion with coal capacity at present are all expanding their capacity,most of them have very high expansion plans compared with their current capacity,reflecting their fast-growing energy supply particularly electricity demand.The group of countries in South and South-West Asia with high expansion plans(Turkey,Pakistan and Bangladesh)include only 2percent of current coal capacity within the Asia-Pacific region,but 13percent of the expansion pipeline within this region.While India still relies strongly on coal for power generation,coal-fired power generation has decreased and the pipeline is shrinking.With strong policies to enhance renewable energy uptake,there is potential for India to move away from coal faster.South-East Asia is characterised by particularly high growth of demand in energy,and in particular electricity demand,and is dominated by countries with expansion plans.It includes 5percent of the Asian and Pacific coal capacity,but 16percent of its coal pipeline.Most of the subregions countries that have expansion plans already have high capacity(Indonesia,the Philippines,Thailand and Viet Nam),two have expansion pipelines larger than the current capacity(Viet Nam and the Philippines)and several have currently low capacity but large expansion plans(Cambodia and the Lao Peoples Democratic Republic).1“Pipeline”refers to coal fired power plants under construction,planned or announced.,planned coal capacity includes those that are in different stages of pre-permit development or have received all necessary approvals but not yet begun construction.vi Executive summaryEven without counting the additional capacity that is in the pipeline,emissions from coal-fired power generation in the Asia-Pacific region would continue at a very high level until after 2040,and would only be phased out by around 2060.This is in stark contrast to the needs of the Paris Agreement Long-term temperature goal which will require the global phase-out of unabated coal by 2040 and the achievement of peak coal-fired power generation by 2020 before quickly reducing afterwards to 80percent below 2010 levels by 2030.Existing coal plant assets are at risk of becoming stranded assets.Any new capacity will be exposed to even greater risk,threatening to unnecessarily increase the cost of the energy transition and placing a higher burden on the emerging economies that are less able to afford it.At the subregional level,this risk is particularly high in the subregions with relatively new coal capacity and large expansion plans,such as in South and South-West Asia and South-East Asia.The global trend of declining coal capacity,now expected to be accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic,is dominated by trends outside of the Asia-Pacific region,particular by record retirements in the European Union and the United States.The picture in the Asia-Pacific region is different,with an overall net increase of coal capacity by 10 GW in the first half of 2020 that was mainly driven by China(9.6 GW).Outside of China,net retirements in the Republic of Korea,the Russian Federation and India have been almost cancelled out by a net increase in capacity in Japan,Viet Nam,Bangladesh and Indonesia.Looking forward,the sharp reduction in cost of solar and wind power as well as storage technologies particularly solar photovoltaics(PV)together with policies against air pollution,increasing adoption of climate change policies as well as awareness of the need to phase out coal to deliver the aims of the Paris Agreement,is leading to an increasing move to phase out coal for power generation at the national or subnational level.There are also clear signs of an increasing aversion towards financing new coal-fired power plants among many government and investors,given these trends and the increasing awarene