世界银行-撒哈拉以南的非洲城市发展路线图：如何兼顾宜居和经济效率（英文）-2019.3-59页.pdf

INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN FOCUSWhich Way to Livable and Productive Cities?A Road Map for Sub-Saharan AfricaKirsten Hommann and Somik V.LallWhich Way to Livable and Productive Cities?A Road Map for Sub-Saharan AfricaINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN FOCUSKirsten Hommann and Somik V.Lall 2019 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433Telephone:202-473-1000;Internet:www.worldbank.orgSome rights reserved1 2 3 4 22 21 20 19Books in this series are published to communicate the results of Bank research,analysis,and operational experience with the least possible delay.The extent of language editing varies from book tobook.This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions.The findings,interpre-tations,and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank,its Board of Executive Directors,or the governments they represent.The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work.The boundaries,colors,denominations,and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank,all of which are specifically reserved.Rights and PermissionsThis work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license(CC BY 3.0 IGO)http:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo.Under the Creative Commons Attribution license,you are free to copy,distribute,transmit,and adapt this work,including for commercial purposes,under the following conditions:AttributionPlease cite the work as follows:Hommann,Kirsten,and Somik V.Lall.2019.Which Way to Livable and Productive Cities?:A Road Map for Sub-Saharan Africa.International Development in Focus.Washington,DC:WorldBank.doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1405-1 License:Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGOTranslationsIf you create a translation of this work,please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation.The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation.AdaptationsIf you create an adaptation of this work,please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank.Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank.Third-party contentThe World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content con-tained within the work.The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties.The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you.If you wish to re-use a component of the work,it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner.Examples of components can include,but are not limited to,tables,figures,or images.All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications,The World Bank Group,1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433,USA;e-mail:pubrightsworldbank.org.ISBN:978-1-4648-1405-1DOI:10.1596/978-1-4648-1405-1Cover photos(clockwise from upper-left):Vincent Tremeau/World Bank;Arne Hoel;Sarah Farhat/World Bank;Kirsten Hommann/World Bank;Becky Matthews/Alamy Stock Photo;Anthony Asael/Danita Delimont,Agent/Alamy Stock Photo.All photos used with permission;further permission required for reuse.Cover design:Debra Naylor/Naylor Design,Inc.iiiAcknowledgments vNumerical Highlights viiPolicy Highlights ixAbbreviations xi Overview 1Main messages 4References 4CHAPTER 1:Cities and Towns Are Growing,yet the Potential Benefits of Urbanization Remain Distant 5Sub-Saharan Africa is urbanizing,while poor and low wealth mean weak institutions and lagging investments 5Urbanization has not been associated with the economic growth experienced elsewhere 6Urbanization has done little to reduce poverty in most Sub-Saharan countries,because most urban population growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is a natural effect of fertility,not an economic pull inducing migration 6Neither large cities nor small towns are livable or productive,and midsized cities are missing 13Environmental policies lag behind,making livability an even more distant goal 22Notes 27References 27CHAPTER 2:Three Pillars on the Road toward Livable and Productive Cities:Working Land Markets,Effective Urban Planning,and Financing for Public Investments 31Making land markets workplanned,but demand-driven 31Strong planning and regulation 33Infrastructure investmentssustainably financed and more efficient 35Notes 40References 40CHAPTER 3:Knowledge Gaps 41Contentsiv|WHICH WAY TO LIVABLE AND PRODUCTIVE CITIES?Boxes1.1 Although declining across Africa,poverty has declined faster in large cities than in rural or other urban areas 71.2 Most Sub-Saharan agro-processing is small in scale,and thus inefficient and relatively unproductive 211.3 Lessons from Kampalas Nakivubo wetland 262.1 Learning from competitive cities 322.2 Improving land management,while enhancing municipal revenue in Somaliland and Tanzania 322.3 An integrated transport and land use planning strategy for Dar es Salaam 352.4 World Banksupported performance-based grant projects 39Figures1.1 Sub-Saharan Africa is urbanizing at lower per capita GDPs than other regions 61.2 Urbanization has been associated with uniform growth in East Asia,but the story is a mixed bag for Sub-Saharan Africa 7B1.1.1 Poverty head-count ratios and the number of poor,200014 8B1.1.2 Only a few countries managed to translate urbanization to poverty reduction 81.3 Urban fertility declines are stalling in some countries,continuing slowly in others 101.4 Natural increase contributes more than in-migration to urban population growth 111.5 The urban poor are better served than the rural nonpoor 121.6 Net wage premiums vary across the urban hierarchy 121.7 Spending on food is high for all urban households and across all expenditure quintiles 131.8 The largest city share in total urban population has remained constant 151.9 Almost one-third of the urban population lives in towns with fewer than 50,000 people 151.10 Biggest gains in improving living standards are made during first move to a larger city 161.11 Cities lack adequate infrastructure 171.12 Service access is unequal within cities,with slum dwellers having far less 171.13 Population living in LECZs will increase to 26 million by 2030,and 110 million by 2060 241.14 Nigerian cities have some of the worst air pollution 272.1 The urban land supply framework in Sub-Saharan Africa 322.2 Intergovernmental transfers as a share of total local government revenues 37Maps1.1 Share of accessible jobs by minibus within 60 minutes,Nairobi 191.2 Dakars weak administrative capacity increases the hazard risk in peri-urban areas 25Tables1.1 About one-fourth of the urban population still works in agriculture 141.2 Few jobs are accessible by foot,Nairobi 18vThis policy note was prepared by Kirsten Hommann and Somik V.Lall,under the overall guidance of Meskerem Brhane and Bernice van Bronkhorst.It draws on the volume of research papers,urbanization reviews,and the following back-ground notes prepared specifically to inform this overview:poverty and services(Shohei Nakamura,Bhavya Paliwal,and Nobuo Yoshida);fertility and migration(Olivia dAoust and Hannah Kim);urbanization and the economy(Angus Kathage);livability and the environment(Hannah Kim and Bontje Zangerling),finance and institutions(William Dillinger and Roland White),and urban plan-ning and land(Peter Ellis,Chyi-Yun Huang,Qingyun Shen,and Bontje Zangerling).Judy Baker,Kathleen Beegle,Luc Christiaensen,Andrew Dabalen,Ruth Hill,Dino Merotto,and Albert Zeufack provided helpful guidance,infor-mation,and comments;and Alex Chunet provided invaluable inputs.Sonia Wheeler supported the team administratively throughout the process.Acknowledgmentsvii Sub-Saharan Africas urban population doubled since the mid-1990s,reach-ing almost 400 million in 2016.The share of urban population rose from 31percent in 2000,to 40 percent in 2017.Nearly three-fourths(72 percent)of the regions urban population resides in urban areas outside the largest city of each country.The rapid increase in Sub-Saharan Africas urban population in recent years is largely attributed to natural growth,and rural-to-urban migration is esti-mated to contribute less than 40 percent.Although the urban poverty head-count ratio(22 percent)is less than half the rural poverty head-count ratio(47 percent),the number of urban poor has been increasing,because of urban population growth.Already 60 percent of Sub-Saharan Africas urban population lives in areas classified as slums by the United Nations Human Settlements Programme,a far larger share than the average of 34 percent in other developing countries.Just under 25 percent of urban households in Sub-Saharan Africa has access to piped water,and about 35 percent use a flush toilet.African households rely on getting to their jobs on foot:more than 50 percent of trips are done by walking in Bamako,Conakry,Dakar,Douala,and Niamey.Today,large cities of more than 1 million people account for 34 percent ofSub-Saharan Africas urban population;secondary cities of 250,000 to 1 million for about 15 percent;but,most striking,smaller cities and towns with fewer than 250,000 people for about 50 percent.Small towns with fewer than 50,000 people account for 29 percent.More than 25 percent of the urban population is employed in agriculture,compared with 10 percent outside Sub-Saharan Africa.More than 4 million urban residents were estimated to live in Sub-Saharan Africas low-elevation coastal zones in 2000.That number is expected to reach 26 million by 2030,and 110 million by 2060.Numerical Highlightsix Urban livability and prosperity cannot be pursued effectively without distin-guishing larger cities from smaller towns.To become economically dense,efficient,and productive,cities require func-tioning land markets with formal ownership records and transfer procedures.Rural areas and their peri-urban small towns equally require land markets to function to enable mechanisms for consolidating land parcels in response to demand and to become more competitive.Planning is needed across the urban spacein the smaller towns to avoid the damage from encroachment and the urban sprawl already inflicted on larger cities,and in the larger cities to use land better by making cities denser and better connected,better serviced,and better functioning.Infrastructure investment decisions need to be informed by appropriate investment planning to better identify,appraise,and monitor investment projects.Instituting better systems for public investment management is essential across urban institutions,and its principles need to be applied to inter governmental transfers as well as direct investments.Policy actions for small towns are not that different from large cities,with most of the differences a matter of degree and delivery.The lack of institutional capacity in the smaller towns may require a slower transition of responsibilities for planning and investment management,as well as enhanced technical assistance so that institutions can perform their tasks.Infrastructure requirements in smaller towns are far lower in terms of capital investments than in larger cities,because service solutions can be more decentralized at the household level rather than requiring collective systems that are more expensive.Small-town investments are likely to be less bankable,and thus need to be supported through public funds or external aid,whereas larger cities may have bankable projects that can crowd in more private finance.Policy HighlightsxiBRT bus rapid transitCSRM census survival ratio methodGDP gross domestic productGIS geographical information systemLECZ low-elevation coastal zoneNP nonpoorPIM public investment managementPPP purchasing power parity;public-private partnershipTFR total fertility rateURPAS urban-rural population by age and sexAbbreviations1OverviewUrban population growth is in full stride in Sub-Saharan Africa,but it has done less to reduce poverty than might be expected.To be sure,a poor person in any urban settlement generally has greater access to all sorts of services than a non-poor person in a rural area.Unlike in other regions,however,urbanization in Sub-Saharan Africa has not generated the economic growth to bring poverty numbers down faster.Despite its high urban growth,Sub-Saharan Africa is experiencing low urbanization.Sub-Saharan Africas urban population doubled since the mid-1990s,reaching almost 400 million in 2016.The share of urban population rose from 31 percent in 2000 to 40 percent in 2017,but much of that population growth was a natural effect of fertility,not an economic effect involving migration.The share of urban population residing in the largest cities remained almost steady over that period.Much larger increases can be recorded in urban areas outside the largest cities;these increases are due to a combination of natu-ral growth,rural-to-urban migration,and reclassifying rural areas as urban.Poverty is urbanizing,with the share of urban poor in the total number of poor on the rise.Although the urban poverty head-count ratio(22 percent)is less than half the rural poverty head-count ratio(47 percent),the number of urban poor has been increasing because of urban population growth.In tandem,the share of urban poor in the total number of poor has been rising slightly,con-tributing to a massive increase in income inequality within cities and towns.When cities function well,they are the engines of economic growth and prosperity.No country has reached middle income without urbanizing.Economic development in the West and more recently in the East Asian growth miracles was achieved through structural transformations that started with the move of agricultural labor to higher-productivity jobs in urban manufacturing and services.The tremendous power of cities to drive productivity growth stems from agglomerationthe clustering of businesses and individuals in an environ-ment that promotes scale and specialization.Population densities bring workers closer to jobs,increasing workers opportunities and fueling their productivity.Cities and towns bring people physically closer,facilitating the exchange of ideas and bringing about innovations.In Sub-Saharan Africa,cities generate about one-third of national gross domestic product(GDP),but they are not creating enough jobs for