快递行业2018及2019Q1财报总结兴业证券交通运输研究团队龚里王品辉2019.5.5一、行业整体情况3数据来源：Wind，国家邮政局，公司公告电商占社会零售总额比例国内电商保持高增长，拼多多等新型电商平台崛起增量2017Q12017Q22017Q32017Q420172018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42018GMV（亿元）872113617531,4126628451,1882,0214,716YOY661%300%229%168%234%同比新增GMV（亿元）1753257031,2035756348271,2683,304假设件单价（元/件）333333333939454442订单量（亿件）3611234317222646111同比新增订单量（亿件）5.39.921.33714.816.318.428.877.8行业业务量（亿）769710112740199122127160507行业同比新增业务量（亿）18.222.522.324.88823242633107拼多多订单量占行业比7%11%18%11%17%18%21%29%22%拼多多订单增量占行业比24%44%86%42%63%67%71%87%73%拼多多对快递业务量的贡献快递增速与网购及社零增速10.80%12.60%15.00%18.40%18.20%8.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%18.00%20.00%20152016201720182019Q1实物商品网上零售额/社零商品总额26%57%55%62%52%48%51%28%27%23%75%70%51%59%47%37%24%30%28%21%19%17%14%14%12%15%10%10%9%8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2010201120122013201420152016201720182019Q1快递业务量增速网购规模增速社零商品增速4行业马太效应显著，助力市场集中度持续改善行业集中度不断提升数据来源：国家邮政局737475767778798081822014-032014-072014-112015-032015-072015-112016-032016-072016-112017-032017-072017-112018-032018-072018-112019-03快递服务品牌集中度CR8市场份额201420152016201720182019Q1申通16.5%12.4%10.4%9.7%10.1%10.5%圆通13.3%14.7%14.3%12.6%13.2%13.1%韵达11.2%10.3%10.3%11.8%13.8%14.7%中通13.0%14.3%14.4%15.5%16.8%18.7%百世5.3%6.8%6.9%9.4%10.8%11.4%顺丰11.5%9.5%8.2%7.6%7.6%8.1%CR670.9%68.0%64.5%66.6%72.37%76.5%CR878.5%77.6%76.8%77.8%81.2%81.7%二、业务量：中通居首，韵达加速追赶6数据来源：公司公告、国家邮政局、中通、百世2019年Q1数据来自物流一图快递企业历年业务量（亿件）及增速（%）年度业务量及增速：中通稳居行业龙头地位，百世名次上升企业项目201420152016201720182018增量2019Q1中通业务量18.229.54562.18522.922.67增速62.20%52.70%38.00%37.00%41.8%市场份额13.00%14.30%14.40%15.50%16.80%21.52%18.66%韵达业务量15.721.332.147.269.922.717.8增速36.50%35.90%50.80%46.90%4...
