摩根士丹利-全球-航运业-2019年全球航运市场展望-2019.2.15-98页.pdfVIP免费

MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.February15,20192019ShippingMarketOutlookMaritimeIndustriesMORGANSTANLEYRESEARCHGlobalMorganStanley&Co.LLCFotisGiannakoulisEquityAnalyst+1212-761-3026fotis.giannakoulis@morganstanley.comMaxYarasResearchAssociate+1212-761-6071Max.Yaras@morganstanley.comFebruary15,201908:01AMGMTMorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.February15,2019What’sInside?1.StockViews2.IMO2020Overview3.CrudeandProductTanker4.DryBulkMarket5.LNGShipping6.LPGShipping7.Containership8.2018MarketReview9.Disclosures[9][19][25][44][53][63][72][79][83]TableofContentsWhat’sChanged?•WeareupgradingNVGStoOWandremainOWEURN,DHT,STNG,CMRE,TGP,GLOP,LNG,GLNG,HLNG,HMLP.WearealsodowngradingSBLKandTNPtoEW.SeeStockViews.•WetakeadeepdiveonIMO2020,includingkeydebatesandreturnsofscrubbersbyvesseltypeandcompany.SeeIMO2020Overview.•Crudetankersfacenear-termheadwindsin2019fromOPECcutsandaheavynewbuilddeliveryschedule,butthe2020+outlookremainspositive.SeeCrudeandProductTankerOutlook.•Weseethedrybulkmarketasenteringaperiodofstructurallyweakdemandasmajorcommoditytradesofironoreandcoalmoveex-growth.SeeDryBulkMarketOutlook.•LNGshippingissettoremaintightthrough2020,butwerecentlyloweredourlong-termshippingrateonagrowingorderbookandslowingpost2020liquefactioncapaci...