1RiceOutlook,RCS-20A,January14,2020USDA,EconomicResearchServiceRiceOutlookRiceOutlookNathanChilds,coordinatornchilds@ers.usda.govU.S.2019/20RiceProductionEstimateLowered3.3MillionCwtto184.7MillionCwtTheU.S.2019/20totalsupplyforecastwaslowered1percentthismonthto259.6millioncwtasa2-percentreductionintheproductionestimateto184.7millioncwtwasmorethanoffseta2-percentincreaseinimportstoarecord30.1millioncwt.Onthe2019/20useside,domesticandresidualusewasincreased2.0millioncwtto133.0million,andtheexportforecastwasincreased0.5millioncwtto98.0million.Onbalance,theserevisionsreducedthe2019/20endingstocksforecastby5.3millioncwtto28.6million.Thelong-grainseason-averageprice(SAFP)forecastwasincreased;theCaliforniaSAFPwaslowered.Intheglobalricemarket,Thailand’s2019/20productionforecastwaslowered10percentto18.5milliontonsbasedonasharplyreduceddrought-impacteddry-seasoncrop.Calendaryear2020exportforecastsforIndiaandPakistanwereraised,whileThailand’swaslowered.Thailand’sandU.S.tradingpricesroseoverthepastmonth.Vietnam’spriceschangedlittleandremainquitecompetitive.0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.005101520251995/962000/0120005/062010/112015/162019/20fProductionHarvestedAreaFigure1Thailand's2019/20riceproductionisprojectedtobethesmallestsincethe2015/16drought-reducedcropMilliontons(milledbasis)Millionhectares2019/20f=forecast.Sources:Production,Supply,andDistributiondatabase,USDA,ForeignAgriculturalService.MarketYearApprovedbytheWorldAgriculturalOutlookBoard.NextreleaseisFebruary13,2020RCS-20A|January14,2020Inthisreport:-DomesticOutlook-InternationalOutlookEconomicResearchService|SituationandOutlookReportRiceOutlookmonthlytables,inexcelformat,canbefoundontheRiceOutlookreportpageonUSDA’sEconomicResearchServicewebsite.2RiceOutlook,RCS-20A,January14,2020USDA,EconomicResearchServiceDomesticOutlookU.S.2019/20YieldEstimateLowered116PoundsperAcreTherewereseveralsupply-siderevisionsthismonthtothe2019/20U.S.ricebalancesheet.First,the2019/20U.S.productionestimatewasloweredalmost2percentto184.7mi...
