瑞信-美股-零售行业-北美家装零售：二季度需求触底但价值达到顶峰-2019.7.10-27页 (2).pdfVIP免费

HomeImprovementRetailStableontheHomeFrontQTDinQ2;DemandClosertoBottom,butValuationClosertotheTop;RemainontheSidelinesDISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.EquityResearchAmericasSethSigmanResearchAnalyst(212)538-8043seth.sigman@credit-suisse.comKieranMcGrath(212)325-5158kieran.mcgrath@credit-suisse.comLaveshHemnani(212)325-5302lavesh.hemnani@credit-suisse.comJuly10,201927/10/2019PlayingoutasexpectedthroughearlyJuly;WebelievethatQ2salestrendsaretrackingasexpectedbasedonourmacro/seasonalindicatorsandstorevisits,withindicationsthatgrowthshouldreacceleratemodestlyin2Hbasedonbothmacroandcompanyspecificdrivers.But,that’sallconsistentwithconsensusestimates.Further,forthestocks,whiletherecentrunupmaybewarrantedbasedonkeystockindicators(namelylowerrates),itfeelslikevaluationisclosertothetopnow.Meanwhile,the25%tariffforHD,lumberdeflationforboth,andLOWQ2GM,stillfeellikeheadlinerisks.Weremainonthesidelines.Therearenochangestoourestimates.1.OurleadingmacroindicatormoderatedinQ2,asexpected,andpointstosomeimprovementin2H,butstillbelowthepriorrun-rate;ForHDthissupportsourUScompsof~3.5%vs.consensus3.6%,andpointsto2Hinthe4.0-4.5%range,beforeconsideringupsidefrominitiativesvsconsensus6.0%.ForLOW,itshouldsupportcompsatleastinlinewithconsensus2.1%,and2Hinthe4.0%rangevsconsensus3.8%2.Seasonaltrendsstartedweak,nowimproving,Julykey;OurseasonalindicatorshowsaweakstarttoQ2duetoweather/difficultcomparisons,withanimprovementstartingMemorialDay,andstrengthcontinuingintoJune.AchievingQ2est.willdependonastrongerJuly,ascomparisonsease.GoogleTrendsshowssimilartrends.3.Deflationworsevs.Q1,althoughimprovedintra-quar...