瑞信-美股-医疗保健行业-管理式医疗与医疗设施：COVID-19追踪-2020.4.3-38页.pdf

Managed Care and Healthcare Facilities COVID-19 Tracker#8:Testing/Hospitalization Update;Next“Hot Spots”Managed Care&Healthcare Facilities|Comment We are updating our COVID-19 tracker,which is designed to be a source for key trends and healthcare services commentary regarding the coronavirus.We include comments from leading industry players relative to the COVID-19 pandemic and actions they are taking in response to the virus,as well as relevant media reports and data.Todays note includes comments from:Anthem,Tenet Healthcare,and Service Corporation International,as well as news reports regarding hospital furloughs around the country.As of April 3rd(11:45 AM ET),data from Johns Hopkins indicate there are 1.057 mln confirmed cases globally,with 257.8K in the United States.Data from The COVID Tracking Project also indicate that confirmed cases have led to 33,047 hospitalizations across the country.POLITICO/The COVID Tracking Project Data:Data from The COVID Tracking Project indicate that as of April 3rd(12:30 PM ET),1,290,619 tests have been given in the US,yielding 242,210 positive results(19%).Among the states with the highest number of positive tests,the data show New York with 92,381 positive tests(of 238,965 total tests),New Jersey with 25,590(of 59,110),and Michigan with 10,791(of 22,684).Next Coronavirus“Hot Spots”:Bloomberg reports that White House task-force coordinator Deborah Birx indicated that the rate of positive coronavirus tests suggest that the next“hot spots”in the country could include Michigan,Connecticut,Indiana,Georgia,and Illinois.New York and New Jersey both have positive test rates of 35%and Louisianas is 26%,while Michigan,Connecticut,Indiana,Georgia,and Illinois are at 15%.Further,Colorado,Washington DC,Rhode Island,and Massachusetts are at 13%.3 April 2020 Equity Research Americas|United States DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES,ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS,LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS.US Disclosure:Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Research Analysts A.J.Rice 212 325 8134 aj.ricecredit- Eduardo Ron 212 325 7491 eduardo.roncredit- Caleb Harris,CPA 212 325 7458 caleb.harriscredit- Alexander Khan 212 325 7714 alexander.khancredit- 3 April 2020 Managed Care and Healthcare Facilities 2 Tracking Global Cases While the first significant outbreak of confirmed cases began in China,the case count there has largely flattened,while the US,Spain,Italy,and Germany have surpassed China by number of confirmed cases.Additionally,of the global death total,Italy has reported the most deaths of any individual country,followed by Spain.On April 2nd,the global confirmed case count surpassed one million cases.Figure 1:China(Confirmed Cases,Recoveries,Deaths)Figure 2:Italy(Confirmed Cases,Recoveries,Deaths)Source:Johns Hopkins,Credit Suisse Source:Johns Hopkins,Credit Suisse Figure 3:United States(Confirmed Cases,Recoveries,Deaths)Figure 4:Spain(Confirmed Cases,Recoveries,Deaths)Source:Johns Hopkins,Credit Suisse Source:Johns Hopkins,Credit Suisse -10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000Total ConfirmedTotal RecoveredTotal Deaths020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000Total ConfirmedTotal RecoveredTotal Deaths-50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000Total ConfirmedTotal RecoveredTotal Deaths-20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000Total ConfirmedTotal RecoveredTotal Deaths3 April 2020 Managed Care and Healthcare Facilities 3 Figure 5:South Korea(Confirmed Cases,Recoveries,Deaths)Figure 6:Iran(Confirmed Cases,Recoveries,Deaths)Source:Johns Hopkins,Credit Suisse Source:Johns Hopkins,Credit Suisse Figure 7:Germany(Confirmed Cases,Recoveries,Deaths)Figure 8:France(Confirmed Cases,Recoveries,Deaths)Source:Johns Hopkins,Credit Suisse Source:Johns Hopkins,Credit Suisse Figure 9:Daily New Confirmed Cases,China Figure 10:Daily New Confirmed Cases,Other Countries Source:Johns Hopkins,Credit Suisse Source:Johns Hopkins,Credit Suisse -2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000Total ConfirmedTotal RecoveredTotal Deaths-10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000Total ConfirmedTotal RecoveredTotal Deaths-10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000Total ConfirmedTotal RecoveredTotal Deaths-10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000Total ConfirmedTotal RecoveredTotal Deaths-2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000-10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000ItalyIranSpainSouth KoreaUnited StatesGermanyFrance3 April 2020 Managed Care and Healthcare Facilities 4 Cases Within the US Continue to Grow As of April 3rd(11:45 AM ET),Johns Hopkins data indicate that there are 257.8K confirmed cases in the United States.Of the confirmed cases reported within the US as of April 2nd,77%were concentrated within the top ten states(by number of confirmed cases),with 38%of confirmed cases in New York,11%in New Jersey,and 4%in Michigan.As of April 3rd(11:45 AM ET),the US has reported 6,586 deaths and 9,311 cases that have recovered.In addition to federal guidelines,various states and localities have issued their own guidelines to mitigate the impact of the spread of the virus in their communities.In recent weeks,federal agencies have issued guidelines and recommendations for individuals and enterprises to mitigate and respond to the spread of the coronavirus.On March 15th,the CDC recommended the nationwide cancelation of gatherings of more than 50 people for the next eight weeks,with certain exceptions such as schools and businesses.Additionally,the White House released guidance as part of its“15 Days to Slow the Spread”initiative,calling for avoiding social gatherings in groups of more than ten people;avoiding eating or drinking at bars,restaurants,and food courts;avoiding discretionary travel,shopping trips,and social visits;and not visiting nursing homes or retirement or long-term care facilities unless to provide critical assistance.On March 14th,Surgeon General Jerome Adams addressed hospital and healthcare systems on Twitter,urging them to“please consider stopping elective procedures until we can#FlattenTheCurve.”On March 18th,CMS Administrator Seema Verma announced that the agency will release guidance that recommends providers limit all“nonessential”elective medical and surgical procedures,including dental procedures.Figures below from the American Enterprise Institute summarize actions and strategies being taken at the state and local level.Figure 11:State of Emergency Figure 12:Ordered Residents to Stay Indoors Source:American Enterprise Institute Source:American Enterprise Institute 3 April 2020 Managed Care and Healthcare Facilities 5 Figure 13:Ordered Elective Surgeries Postponed Figure 14:Ordered Hospitals to Increase Capacity Source:American Enterprise Institute Source:American Enterprise Institute Figure 15:Closed Non-Essential Businesses Figure 16:Limited Size of Gatherings Source:American Enterprise Institute Source:American Enterprise Institute Figure 17:Local Mitigation Strategies Source:American Enterprise Institute 3 April 2020 Managed Care and Healthcare Facilities 6 Tracking the Most Affected US States On March 15th,the epicenter for COVID-19 shifted to New York from Washington.Today,New York accounts for 38%of the cases in the entire country.Figure 18:Total Confirmed Cases(Since March 3)Source:Johns Hopkins,Credit Suisse Confirmed Cases3/3/20203/4/20203/5/20203/6/20203/7/20203/8/20203/9/20203/10/20203/11/20203/12/20203/13/20203/14/20203/15/20203/16/20203/17/20203/18/20203/19/20203/20/20203/21/20203/22/20203/23/20203/24/20203/25/20203/26/20203/27/20203/28/20203/29/20203/30/20203/31/20204/1/20204/2/2020New York2 11 23 31 76 106 142 173 220 328 421 525 732 967 1,706 2,495 5,365 8,310 11,710 15,793 20,884 25,681 30,841 37,877 44,876 52,410 59,648 66,663 75,833 83,948 92,506 New Jersey-2 2 4 5 5 15 23 29 29 69 98 178 267 267 742 890 1,327 1,914 2,844 3,675 4,402 6,876 8,825 11,124 13,386 16,636 18,696 22,255 25,590 Michigan-2 2 16 25 33 53 65 83 334 552 788 1,037 1,329 1,793 2,296 2,845 3,634 4,650 5,488 6,498 7,615 9,315 10,791 California25 35 51 59 81 95 101 144 177 221 282 340 426 557 698 751 952 1,177 1,364 1,642 2,108 2,538 2,998 3,899 4,657 5,095 5,852 7,138 8,210 9,399 10,773 Louisiana-1 1 6 19 36 77 91 136 196 257 392 538 585 837 1,172 1,388 1,795 2,304 2,744 3,315 3,540 4,025 5,237 6,424 9,159 Florida2 2 3 3 7 10 13 15 28 35 50 76 115 155 216 314 417 563 659 830 1,227 1,412 1,682 2,357 2,900 3,763 4,246 5,473 6,741 6,956 9,008 Massachusetts2 2 2 6 6 22 22 92 95 108 123 138 164 197 218 218 328 413 525 646 777 1,159 1,838 2,417 3,240 4,257 4,955 5,752 6,620 7,738 8,966 Illinois4 4 5 5 6 7 7 12 25 32 46 64 93 105 161 162 422 585 753 1,049 1,285 1,537 1,865 2,538 3,024 3,491 4,596 5,056 5,994 6,980 7,695 Pennsylvania-2 2 6 7 12 16 22 41 47 66 77 112 152 206 303 396 509 698 946 1,260 1,795 2,345 2,845 3,432 4,155 4,963 6,009 7,268 Washington27 39 70 78 102 122 122 267 366 442 568 572 643 904 1,076 1,014 1,376 1,524 1,793 1,996 2,221 2,328 2,591 3,207 3,477 4,030 4,465 4,923 5,432 5,608 6,389 Georgia2 2 2 3 5 5 10 17 23 31 42 66 99 121 146 199 287 420 507 600 772 1,026 1,247 1,525 2,000 2,366 2,651 2,808 3,929 4,638 5,348 Texas-3 4 8 11 13 13 21 27 43 57 72 85 110 173 260 394 581 627 758 955 1,229 1,563 1,937 2,455 2,792 3,147 3,809 4,355 5,069 Connecticut-2 3 5 11 22 24 30 68 68 159 194 194 223 415 618 875 1,012 1,291 1,524 1,993 2,571 3,128 3,557 3,824 Colorado-3 7 7 7 15 34 45 49 101 131 160 160 184 277 363 390 476 704 723 1,021 1,430 1,433 1,740 2,307 2,311 2,966 2,982 3,342 Indiana-1 1 2 3 6 11 13 13 16 20 25 30 39 60 86 128 201 270 368 477 645 979 1,233 1,513 1,786 2,158 2,564 3,038 Ohio-3 4 5 13 26 37 50 67 86 119 173 248 355 443 567 704 868 1,137 1,406 1,653 1,933 2,199 2,547 2,901 Tennessee-1 1 1 3 3 7 9 18 26 32 39 52 74 79 154 233 371 505 614 772 916 1,097 1,318 1,511 1,720 1,917 2,391 2,933 2,845 Maryland-3 3 5 5 8 9 12 18 26 32 41 60 85 107 149 193 244 290 349 425 583 775 995 1,239 1,413 1,660 1,986 2,331 North Carolina1 1 1 2 2 2 2 7 7 15 17 24 33 38 64 70 123 172 253 302 353 495 590 738 887 1,020 1,191 1,313 1,535 1,675 1,977 Missouri-1 1 1 1 1 2 4 5 6 11 18 31 53 74 100 187 257 354 520 666 836 915 1,051 1,357 1,613 1,857 Wisconsin-3 6 8 19 27 32 47 72 92 159 207 282 381 425 481 621 728 926 1,055 1,164 1,230 1,412 1,556 1,748 Arizona1 1 1 2 4 4 4 6 9 9 9 12 13 18 20 27 45 78 118 152 235 326 401 508 665 773 919 1,157 1,289 1,530 1,715 Virginia-2 2 7 9 17 30 41 45 49 67 77 99 122 156 221 254 293 396 466 607 740 890 1,020 1,249 1,483 1,706 South Carolina-2 2 3 7 10 12 13 19 28 33 47 47 81 126 171 196 298 342 424 424 542 660 774 925 1,083 1,293 1,554 Nevada-1 2 2 4 4 4 7 14 17 21 24 45 56 55 95 114 161 190 245 278 323 420 536 626 920 1,012 1,114 1,279 1,463 Alabama-5 6 12 29 39 46 78 83 131 138 196 242 381 517 587 694 825 899 987 1,060 1,233 Mississippi-1 1 6 10 13 21 34 50 80 140 207 249 320 377 485 579 663 759 847 937 1,073 1,177 Utah-1 1 1 2 3 5 9 10 28 39 51 51 80 78 136 181 257 298 340 396 472 602 720 804 888 888 1,092 Oklahoma-1 1 1 2 2 2 2 4 7 10 19 19 44 49 53 67 81 106 164 248 322 377 429 481 568 721 881 Oregon3 3 3 3 6 14 14 15 19 24 30 32 36 39 66 68 88 114 114 161 191 210 266 316 416 479 548 606 690 736 826 Idaho-1 2 5 5 8 9 11 23 36 42 68 81 91 146 205 234 281 340 515 566 776 Kentucky-1 1 1 4 6 8 10 14 14 20 21 26 27 37 47 87 99 123 162 197 247 301 393 438 479 628 632 770 Minnesota-1 1 1 2 3 5 9 14 21 35 54 60 77 89 115 138 169 234 261 286 344 396 441 503 576 629 689 742 Rhode Island2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 5 5 14 20 20 21 23 33 44 54 66 83 106 124 132 165 203 239 294 408 488 566 657 District of Columbia-2 2 5 10 10 10 10 16 22 22 31 40 71 77 102 120 141 187 231 271 304 342 401 495 586 653 Arkansas-1 6 6 12 16 22 22 33 62 96 122 165 192 219 280 335 381 409 426 473 523 584 643 Iowa-3 8 13 16 17 17 18 23 23 29 44 45 68 90 105 124 146 179 235 298 336 424 497 547 614 Kansas-1 1 1 1 1 5 8 8 11 18 18 34 44 57 64 84 100 134 172 206 266 330 372 434 485 553 Delaware-1 1 4 6 7 8 16 19 30 38 45 47 68 104 119 130 163 214 232 264 319 368 393 New Mexico-3 5 10 10 13 17 23 23 35 43 43 57 83 100 113 113 136 208 237 237 315 340 388 Maine-1 3 12 17 32 42 52 56 70 89 107 118 142 155 168 211 253 275 303 303 376 Vermont-1 1 1 1 2 2 5 8 12 12 18 22 29 29 52 75 95 125 158 184 211 235 256 293 321 338 New Hampshire2 2 2 2 2 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 13 17 26 26 44 44 55 65 101 101 108 137 158 187 214 314 357 367 316 Puerto Rico-3 5 5 5 5 5 14 21 23 31 39 51 64 79 100 127 174 239 286 316 Hawaii-1 1 1 2 2 2 2 4 6 7 10 14 16 26 37 48 56 90 91 95 106 149 149 175 204 224 256 Nebraska-1 1 1 3 3 5 10 13 14 17 18 21 24 29 37 38 51 51 66 71 74 82 96 108 145 172 210 246 Montana-1 1 1 5 7 7 9 11 11 15 21 31 34 51 65 90 109 129 154 171 198 208 241 West Virginia-1 1 2 7 8 12 16 22 39 52 76 96 113 145 162 191 216 South Dakota-8 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 14 14 21 28 30 41 46 58 68 90 101 108 129 165 North Dakota-1 1 1 1 1 3 6 18 19 28 28 30 36 45 51 68 94 98 109 122 142 159 Wyoming-1 1 2 3 3 11 15 18 19 23 24 26 29 44 53 70 82 86 94 109 130 150 Alaska-1 1 1 1 3 6 9 12 15 21 30 34 41 56 58 85 102 114 119 132 143 Grand Princess-21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 20 21 21 22 23 23 30 41 41 41 41 41 116 116 116 116 116 116 Guam-3 3 3 5 12 14 15 27 29 32 37 45 51 55 56 58 69 77 82 Diamond Princess45 45 45 45 45 45 45 46 46 46 46 46 46 47 47 47 47 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 Virgin Islands-1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 7 17 17 17 19 22 -30 30 30 3 April 2020 Managed Care and Healthcare Facilities 7 Figure 19:Daily New Confirmed Cases(Since March 3)Source:Johns Hopkins,Credit Suisse Daily New Cases3/3/20203/4/20203/5/20203/6/20203/7/20203/8/20203/9/20203/10/20203/11/20203/12/20203/13/20203/14/20203/15/20203/16/20203/17/20203/18/20203/19/20203/20/20203/21/20203/22/20203/23/20203/24/20203/25/20203/26/20203/27/20203/28/20203/29/20203/30/20203/31/20204/1/20204/2/2020New York1 9 12 8 45 30 36 31 47 108 93 104 207 235 739 789 2,870 2,945 3,400 4,083 5,091 4,797 5,160 7,036 6,999 7,534 7,238 7,015 9,170 8,115 8,558 New Jersey-2 -2 1 -10 8 6 -40 29 80 89 -475 148 437 587 930 831 727 2,474 1,949 2,299 2,262 3,250 2,060 3,559 3,335 Michigan-2 -14 9 8 20 12 18 251 218 236 249 292 464 503 549 789 1,016 838 1,010 1,117 1,700 1,476 California4 10 16 8 22 14 6 43 33 44 61 58 86 131 141 53 201 225 187 278 466 430 460 901 758 438 757 1,286 1,072 1,189 1,374 Louisiana-1 -5 13 17 41 14 45 60 61 135 146 47 252 335 216 407 509 440 571 225 485 1,212 1,187 2,735 Florida1 -1 -4 3 3 2 13 7 15 26 39 40 61 98 103 146 96 171 397 185 270 675 543 863 483 1,227 1,268 215 2,052 Massachusetts1 -4 -16 -70 3 13 15 15 26 33 21 -110 85 112 121 131 382 679 579 823 1,017 698 797 868 1,118 1,228 Illinoi