汇丰银行-全球-制药行业-生物科技更新：2019-2023年累计销售风险超过4000亿美元-2019.8.22-29页.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:HSBCBankplcViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comUSD400bn+inbiologicdrugsalesatriskfrombiosimilars2019-2023;asignificantheadwindforthePharmasectorLillynowhasthefirstUSD1bn+biosimilardrug;ChinacouldbecomeahighlyattractivemarketforbiosimilarcompaniesRoche,NovoNordiskandSanofiwillcontinuetofacebiosimilarpricepressure;NovartislikelyanetbeneficiarySignificantheadwindforsectorgrowth:Whicheverwayyoulookatit,withoverUSD100bnperannuminbrandedbiologicdrugsalesatriskfrombiosimilars–amountingtooverUSD400bnfrom2019-2023andequaltoc.10%ofglobalbrandedPharmaceuticalsales–thePharmasectorfacesaprolongedandsignificantheadwindthatcouldrestrainrevenueandearningsgrowthformultiplecompanies.DynamicsinEUandJapansimilar;UShasdifferences,especiallyinOncology:Biosimilarshavearapid,significantandprolongedimpactonthepriceandsalesofbrandedbiologic-baseddrugsinEurope,JapanandtheUS.ThedynamicsoftheimpactareslightlymorebenignintheUSand,incontrasttotheimpactofOncologybiosimilarsinEuropeandJapan,weexpectaslowerrateofpenetrationintheUS.Mostlose,butsomewin:Roche,NovoNordiskandSanofiwillcontinuetofaceeitherdirectorindirectbiosimilarpricingpressureinmultiplemarketsoveraprolongedperiodoftime,creatingheadwindstovaryingdegreesforeachbusiness.However,NovartiswithitsbiosimilarbusinesswithinSandoz,shouldbeanetbeneficiaryasbiosimilarscontinuetogainmarketshare–atlowerprices–frombrandedbiologic-baseddrugs.EliLilly,withBasaglar−itsbiosimilarversionofSanofi’sLantus−nowhasthefirstbiosimilardrugwithaUSD1bn+salesrunrate.ChinaandChinesebiosimilarcompaniescouldhavesignificantcommercialopportunities:WeviewthreemainopportunitiesforbiosimilarcompaniesinChina:1.Genericisationofbrandedbiologics(sameasinEU,JapanandUS);2.Theopportunitytocreateanew,lower-pricedbiologicsmarketwherebrandedbiologicshavebeentooexpensiveandhavenotgainedtra...