汇丰银行-全球-石油与天然气行业-2019年的石油——范围限制：石油输出国组织削减满足美国页岩过剩-2019.1-50页.pdfVIP免费

Disclaimer&Disclosures:ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofithttps://www.research.hsbc.comPlayvideowithGordonGrayOilin2019Rangebound:OPECcutmeetsUSshaleglutWelowerourBrentcrudepriceassumptionstoUSD64/bforFY19e,USD70/bforbothFY20eandFY21eWeseegooddownsideprotectionatcurrentlevelsfromacombinationofOPECsupplyrestraintandUSpricesensitivityOPECcutsshouldbalancethemarketandallowpricestorecover;IMO2020isalsosupportive,butshalegrowthcouldcontinuetocaptheupsideMULTI-ASSETGLOBALJanuary2019By:GordonGray,KimFustier,CharlesSwabey,andThomasC.Hilboldt1MULTI-ASSET●GLOBALJanuary2019Executivesummary2Inventoriesanddemand12OPECoutlook22USsupply27Non-OPECsupply35IMO2020isn’tfaraway42Disclosureappendix46Disclaimer48ContentsMULTI-ASSET●GLOBALJanuary20192PriceassumptionsEvenwiththeslumpinpricesinNovember/December,theBrentpriceaveragedUSD68/bin4Q18.Forthefullyear,BrentaveragedUSD71.6/b,31%higherthanin2017.Ourrevisedpriceassumptionsareshowninthetablebelow.HSBCoilandgaspriceassumptionsAnnualaverage201420152016201720182019e2020e2021eBrentUSD/b99.453.645.154.871.664.070.070.0Previous80.085.075.0Change-16.0-15.0-5.0WTIUSD/b92.948.843.450.964.857.066.068.0Previous74.081.073.0Change-17.0-15.0-5.0NymexgasUSD/mBtu4.342.612.492.963.073.133.253.32Previous3.003.253.32Change0.130.000.00UKspotgasUSD/mBtu8.46.74.85.98.27.17.37.5Previous8.08.67.5Change-0.8-1.30.0Quarterlyaverage1Q182Q183Q184Q181Q19e2Q19e3Q19e4Q19eBrentUSD/b67.375.075.868.359.065.065.067.0Previous75.080.080.085.0Change-16.0-15.0-15.0-18.0WTIUSD/b62.967.969.559.051.057.059.061.0NymexgasUSD/mBtu2.852.832.873.733.503.003.003.00UKspotgasUSD/mBtu8.68.68.69.07.76.56.57.8Source:Bloomberg,HSBCestimatesFor2019e,weforecastanaverageBrentpriceofUSD64/b(vsUSD80/bpreviously),withaquarterlyprogressionofUSD59/65/65/67/b.Thisprogressiontakesintoaccounttwomainfactors:1)seasonalweaknessindemandinthefirstquarteroftheyear;and2)IMO2020-relatedfactorsst...