汇丰银行-亚太地区-银行业-菲律宾银行业：当心流动性紧张-2019.2.20-24页.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.MCI(P)065/01/2019MCI(P)016/02/2018Issuerofreport:TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited,SingaporeBranchViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comRisksofrisinginterestratesandweakeningpesohaveabated,butwatchoutforliquiditytightnessBeselectiveassectorROAunderpressureandvaluationsarenotparticularlycheapPreferbankswithstrongdepositfranchisesandstrongergrowthprospects–MBT(ratedBuy)mostpreferredPersistingliquiditytightness.Webelievethattherisksofrisinginterestratesandaweakeningpesohaveabated,onthebackofnormalisationofinflationandalesshawkishFed.Sowhiletherisksstemmingfromrisinginflationandinterestratesaffectingcustomers’servicingabilityhavereduced,wearestillcautiousonthesector.Thisisduetotheimminentslowdownineconomicgrowth(from2018’s6.2%toc6.0%in2019eperHSBC’seconomist’sforecast),drivenbyweakerprivateinvestmentandgovernmentspending,andapersistingtightnessinliquidity(comingfromawideningcurrentaccountdeficit).UnderperformingYTD.Banks’sharepriceperformancehasalsolagged,underperformingthebroadermarket–PFINC+0%YTDvsPCOMP+7%.Assuch,weareselectiveonstockswithinthesector,dueto:1)ROApressure(from1.24%in2017to1.06%bytheendof2020e),drivenmostlybyhighercreditcosts(mainlycomingfromcreditcostnormalisation),asrevenueROAremainsfairlystable;and2)webelievesectorvaluationsarenotparticularlycheap.Thesectoriscurrentlytradingat1.3x2019ePBvsROEof9%(vshistoricalaveragesof1.7xPBvs13%ROE).OnPE,thesectoriscurrentlytradingat16x2019e,whichisalmostat+1SDaboveits10-yearhistoricalmeanof14x.MBTstillmostpreferred.Withinthesector,wepreferlargerbanksthatarelesssusceptibletorisingfundingcosts,haveastrongbalancesheet(intermsoflowNPLratios,higherreservecoverageandamplecapital),andstrongerEPSgrowthprospects–MBT(ratedBuy)isbestpositioned,inourview.TweakingEPSbyc2%in2019/20e.Weadjustoursectoraverage2019-20eEPSmarginallybyc2%,fr...