汇丰银行-中国-汽车行业-中国汽车经销商：是时候重新审视落后者了-2019.2-27页.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comHSBCChinaConference201915-17May,ShenzhenRegisternowTHISCONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDTOTHEPEOPLE'SREPUBLICOFCHINA(THE"PRC")(EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGANDMACAO)Theindustryexperienceditsdarkestmomentsin2018forthelastdecade,withlowsalesandwideningdiscountlevelsWeexpectthediscountleveltonarrowasdestockingcontinuesandmarketdemandstabilisesUpgradeYongda,ZhongshengandZhengtongeachtoBuyfromHoldwithnewTPsofHKD6.80,HKD19.00andHKD5.60Discounttorecover:Weseetheaveragedealers’discountnarrowingfromahighof11.6%inJanuary2019,thehighestlevelsince2014.Weexpectmarginstorecoverfromthecurrenthighbaseas:1)thediscountshouldnarrowgivendestockingreducesthepressuretolowersellingpricesgoingforward;and2)marketsalesgrowthwillturnpositivefromthebeginningof1Q,inourview.TheinventorylevelhasbeendecliningfromDecember2018,whichwebelieveismainlyduetoOEMs’initiativestolowerwholesalevolumes.Onceretaildemandstabilises,weexpectthediscountleveltonarrow.Luxurysalestoremainstrongin2019:Afteranalysingtheluxuryretailsalesbreakdownbyprovince,wefoundthatin2018thegrowthinluxurybrandscamefromthecentralandsouthernprovinces,wheresecond-andlower-tiercitiesarelocated.Webelievethisisduetoalowerluxurypenetrationrateintheseareas.In2019,weexpectthistrendtocontinueandforecastthefull-yearluxurysalesgrowthratetobe7%andoverallpenetrationratetorisefurtherto13.2%byyear-end.Upgradedealersformarginturnaround:Onthebackofthemarginturnaround,weupgradeourratingsonYongda,ZhongshengandZhengtongtoBuyfromHold.Weseethesedealersasbeneficiariesofthecurrentmarkettrend;however,theyarethelaggardssofarinthisautorally.ThedealershaveunderperformedOEMsby20%y-t-donaverage.Amongthethreedealers,Yongdaisourpreferredplayasweseethemostupsideforitsmarginrecovery.Wh...