J.P. 摩根-新兴市场-投资策略-新兴市场宏观展望与策略-2019.3.7-40页.pdfVIP免费

GlobalEmergingMarketsResearch07March2019EmergingMarketsOutlookandStrategyStaymodestlyOWinEMfixedincomedespiterecentFXweaknessandstillunclearglobalgrowthpictureEmergingMarketsStrategyLuisOganesAC(1-212)834-4326luis.oganes@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCJonnyGouldenAC(44-20)7134-4470jonathan.m.goulden@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplcSeepage36foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon-USanalystdisclosures.www.jpmorganmarkets.comKeytopicsFlashbacksto2018keepEMinvestorsworried,butcomparisonsareonlysurfacedeep,asEMpositioningislower,valuationsarebetter,andearlyindicationsarethatEMfundamentalsarenowimproving.Whileglobalgrowthremainsaconcern,weholdthecoursewithmoderateEMOWsinlocalrates,sovereigncreditandFX,inthatorderofconviction,withEMFXtherecentlaggardandlocalratesbettersupportedbytheenvironment.MacrodevelopmentsEMheadwindshavelessenedduetothechangeinFedpolicy;EMpolicyratestoremainlowerforlonger.TheshifttoamoredovishstancehassignificantimplicationsforEM.WhilebothCAD(currentaccountdeficit)andCASeconomiesshouldbenefit,therelieftotheformerislikelytobemuchbiggergiventhetypicallyhighersensitivityofCADcountriestoFedpolicy.EMhigh-frequencygrowthindicatorssuggestthatwearebroadlyontrackwithourforecastforarecoveryin1Q19.EM-DMgrowthdifferentialsareexpectedtocontinuetowideninfavorofEMthrough2019asthemomentumacceleratesinEManddeceleratesinDM.ToptradingthemesStaymoderatelyOWEMlocalrates(EMAsiaandEMEAEM)andFX(EMAsiaandLatam).InEMAsiarates,holdOWIndonesiaandMalaysiavs.UWThailand,andlongsinshort-endIndialocalbonds,15yINDOGBs,Korealinkersvs.10yKRWpayersand5y5yTWDreceivers.InEMEAEMrates,stayOWdurationwithOWRomania,CzechandSouthAfricavs.UWHungary;receive5yILS,golong1yNigeriaT-billsand10ySERBGBsandholdCZKflatteners.InLatamrates,stayMWoverallwithOWBrazilandPeruvs.UWChile,alongsideoutrightlongsinUYUlinkers,1s3sIBRflattenersandnewl0yTIIEreceivers.InAsiaFX,squareUWPHPbutstayOWoverallviaMYR.WeclosedCNHTWIshortsbutstayshortTHBTWI.InEMEAEM,remainMWwithOWPLNvs.UWC...