J.P. 摩根-亚太地区-投资策略-亚太投资公司：它们是“贸易战”的证据吗？-2019.2-25页.pdfVIP免费

STRICTLYPRIVATEANDCONFIDENTIALAsiaInvestmentGradeCorporatesAreThey“TradeWar”Proof?VarunAhuja,CFAAC(852)28006038varun.x.ahuja@jpmorgan.com\TiantianTeng(852)28007024tiantian.teng@jpmorgan.comAsiaCreditResearchAsiaPacificCreditResearchFebruary2019Seeendpagesforanalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.1ExecutiveSummaryAsiaIGCorporatesregisteredpositivereturnsyeartodate,helpedbycreditspreadtighteningaswellaslowerUSTyieldsStrongstarttotheyearwithyeartodatetotalreturnsat2.2%,whichisattributedto24bpsinspreadcompressionandalsoslighttighteninginUSTs.Byratings,BBB-ratedcorporatesreversedtheunderperformanceseenlastyear,tightening30bpsintheyearsofar,outperformingsingle-Aratedcorporateswhichhavetightenedonly12bps.ThisisbroadlyinlinewithourviewwherewehadaslightpreferenceforBBB-ratedcorporatesforthisyear.WhathasbeenabitsurprisingthoughisthematerialoutperformanceofIndiancorporates(althoughinlinewithChinaBBBcredits,whichhadbeenourpreferredsegmentasmentionedintheyearahead2019outlook).Byduration,bellyoftheAsianIGcorporatesoutperformedwith43bpsinspreadstighteningfollowed24-26bpstighteninginthelongend.ThefrontendoftheIGcurvehasunderperformedsofarthisyearinthisrally.Lookingahead,wemaintainaslightpreferenceforthebellyandshorterthan5yrdurationbondslookingatourUSTratesoutlookandalsothesomewhatspreadscurve.Fundamentalscontinuetostrengthenwithsolidimprovementtrendsustainedsince2015.BlendednetdebttoEBITDAhasdeclinedto~1.2xfromover2.0xin2015,EBITDAmarginsareatpost-GFChighsandinterestcoverageisastrong8-9x.Liquidityhasbeenexceptionallystrongaswellwithcashmorethancoveringshorttermdebtonablendedbasis.WealsoseesomeimprovementinChinaSOEs’fundamentalsasgovernmentfocusonSOEdeleveragingplaysoutbutLGFVsremainabitofaconcernalt...