巴黎银行-全球-信贷策略-2019年6月巴黎银行月度信贷会议：本年度最大的风险事件-20190621-28页.pdfVIP免费

CORPORATE&INSTITUTIONALBANKINGJune2019BNPPMonthlyCreditCall–June2019TheBiggestRiskEventThisYearViktorHjort–CreditStrategy:TradeandtheCreditmarketoutlookDominiqueToublan–USCreditStrategy:Tradescenarios,marketviewsLuigiSperanza–GlobalEconomics:ThetradeconflictanditsimpactVIKTORHJORT,DOMINIQUETOUBLAN,LUIGISPERANZACREDITSTRATEGYANDTRADINGDESKANALYSTSTHISISMARKETINGMATERIALFROMTHECREDITSTRATEGY&TRADINGDESKANALYSTTEAMANDISNOTRESEARCHGlobalEconomics:Sensitivetothetradeoutlook2Global:Servicesvs.manufacturingWhilemanufacturingactivityhasslowedconsiderably,serviceshavehelduprelativelywelloverallwithsurveysremainingfirmlyintheexpansionaryareaThisdichotomyreflectsthecontrastbetweenslumpingexportdemandandresilientdomesticconditionsSources:Eurostat,Macrobond,BNPParibasSources:IHSMarkit,Macrobond,BNPParibasDecouplingChart1:USmanufacturingoutputvsServicesPMIsChart2:EurozonemanufacturingoutputvsServicesPMIs3LuigiSperanza,GlobalEconomicsMarkets360BNPParibasLondonBranchGlobal:ExportsLeadingindicatorspointtofurtherweaknessinexportsIncontractionterritory4Sources:IHSMarkit,BNPParibasChart1:WorldexportsvsmanufacturingPMInewexportorders(index)LuigiSperanza,GlobalEconomicsMarkets360BNPParibasLondonBranchGlobal:The‘techcycle’Whilesomeofthemostforwardlookingindicatorsshowedaslightuptickearlierin2019,therecentescalationofthetradewarlookstohavecurtailedtheincipientrecoveryRenewedtradetensionshaveweighedonforward-lookingindicators5Chart2:TaiwanandSouthKoreaexportordersvs.WorldtradevolumeSources:CPB,IHSMarkit,Macrobond,BNPParibasSources:FederalReserveSanFrancisco,NasdaqOMX,KoreaMOTIE,IHSMarkit,BNPParibasChart1:Global‘techcycle’(standardised)LuigiSperanza,GlobalEconomicsMarkets360BNPParibasLondonBranchTradetensions:Uncertainty&InvestmentChart1:2018H2averagegrowthinnominalinvestment(%y/y)Sources:BankofEngland,BNPParibasChart2:Globalcapexexpectationsinnextsixmonths(diffusionindex)Sources:Ifo,Macrobond,BNPParibasUsingBrexitasanexample,weseefirmsthatexpectedaquickresolutionhavepul...