J.P. 摩根-新兴市场-宏观策略-2019IMF与世界银行春季会议亮点-2019.6.4-34页.pdfVIP免费

GlobalEmergingMarketsResearch04June2019Highlightsfromthe2019IMF/WorldBankSpringMeetingsReluctantlybullish:ClearEMriskappetitedespitelackofcompellingopportunitiesChairofGlobalResearchJoyceChang(1-212)834-4203joyce.chang@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCGlobalEmergingMarketsResearchLuisOganesAC(1-212)834-4326luis.oganes@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCJahangirAzizAC(1-212)834-4328jahangir.x.aziz@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCJonnyGouldenAC(44-20)7134-4470jonathan.m.goulden@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplcSeepage32foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.www.jpmorganmarkets.comMorethan750investorsattendedourinvestorseminarduringtheInternationalMonetaryFundandWorldBankSpringMeetingsinWashingtonDConApril11-12,whichfeaturedmeetingswithDMandEMpolicymakers,officialcreditorsandindependentanalysts.Keyhighlightsfromthemeetingsfollow:FedpivothashelpedlongEMpositionsandinflows,withinvestorspositionedOWbutseeinglimitedopportunities.SpeakershadnoclearideasonhowtoraiseDMinflationinanorderlyway.EMcentralbankshaveroomtokeepeasymonetarystancesandweprojectpolicyrates44bploweronaverage.ChinaisshowingearlysignsofgrowthstabilizationandapositiveannouncementonUS-Chinatradeappearsforthcomingsoon.However,therewereseriousquestionsaboutthecomprehensivenessanddurabilityofadeal,consideringtheUSinsistenceonaunilateralenforcementmechanism.InvestorsarewillingtoholdontoArgentinariskdespitethepoliticaluncertainty.Whiletheelectioncalendarwilllikelykeepvolatilityhighthroughtheyear,depressedvaluationskeepinvestorswillingtoholdpositions,asfewseeaneventualCristinaKirchnerwin.Whilethedevilisinthedetails,BrazilremainsthepreferredEMmacrostoryforinvestorsthisyeardespiteconcernsaboutoutlookforthepensionreform.InvestorsbelievethatpensionreformwillgainapprovalandBrazilianauthoritiesoutlinedtheirplantotacklefiscalandgrowthchallengesinotherareas:privatizations,containmentofpublicpayrollgrowthandtradeopening.SignificantconcernsremainoverhowpoliticsinMexicowillimpactpoliciesandinstitut...