HSBC-中国航空业-中国大陆与香港航空业：暂停的原因-2021.2.19-39页.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comThe3rdeditionoftheEMSentimentSurveyDownloadreportEMboldenedTHISCONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDTOMAINLANDCHINALunarNewYeardomestictravelhasbeenlacklustre;whiletrafficmayrecover,yieldpressureswilllikelypersistWeforecastlossesin2021eonlowertrafficestimates;risingfuelpricesandaweakerRMBareheadwindsDowngradeAC-HtoReduce(fromHold),CSA-HandCXtoHold(fromBuy);reiterateHoldonCEA-H,ReduceonBCIABighittoLunarNewYeartravel:Airlinesareofftoaroughstartin2021.AsurgeinCOVID-19casesworldwide,includinginChina,hasdashedhopesofanymeaningfulrecoveryininternationaltravel,evenin2H21.From28Januaryto16February,thefirst20daysofthetravelseasonthatlastsfor40days(until8March),averagedailyairpassengertraffichasbeenjust0.54m,down70%y-o-yanddown67%versus2019.InFebruarysofar,theaveragedailypassengercountstandsatjust0.54m,onlyslightlybelowthedailyaverageof0.56minApril2020.WiththelocalspreadofCOVID-19againrelativelycontained,domestictrafficshouldrecoversomewhat,butweexpectinternationaltravelrecoverytobesofterformostof2021.Multipleheadwindsexacerbateaweakinternationaltrafficrecovery–yield,fuelandFX:ThesequentialdeclineintrafficsinceNovemberandthesetbacktoholidaytravelhavederailedhopesofayieldrecovery.AccordingtoCtrip,airfaresonkeyroutesfellmorethan70%duringtheholidayperiodandinsomeroutesairfareswerecheaperthesecond-classfaresofhigh-speedrailways.Theriseindomesticcapacityduetodiversionsfrominternationalroutes(c40%ofRPKin2019)willaddtopressureonyields,particularlyin2021-22e,inourview.Tomakethingsworse,fuelpriceshaverallied.HSBC’soilandgasteamforecastsa29%y-o-yriseinBrentcrudepricesthisyear,andthespreadbetweenjetfuelandBrenthaswidened.TheRMBappreciated6.7%In2020(10%fromitstroughofMay2020)whereasHSBC’sFXteamforecastsadepreciationof1.1%in2...