J.P. 摩根-全球-宏观策略-全球宏观数据观察-2019.3.22-80页.pdf

Economic ResearchMarch 22,2019Global Data Watch Brexit chaos,weak PMIs focus attention on downside risk in Europe Global industry looks to have stalled this quarter Fed reinforces its pivot,and the dovish tilt by EM CBs gathers steam Next week:Ifo,Insee;Asian IP;US core PCE dips to 1.8%oyaEurope mattersWe generally pay particular attention to developments in US and EM Asia in tracking global growth dynamics.The importance of the US relates to its size,its dominant role in global macro policy setting and driving financial condi-tions,and the dynamism of its private sector demand.The relatively high quality of US data releases further enhances its importance as emerging global impulses are often identified most clearly in the US.While Chinas economy is smaller and its data releases are more difficult to read,its outsized contribu-tion to global growth and its central role in the global supply chains has en-hanced its importance in global data watching.The timely,albeit noisy,read-ings available on manufacturing and international trade from other Asian economies feeding Chinas supply chain and global goods demand provide an additional lens to track global growth.At present the signal from the US and EM Asia remains consistent with a below-potential GDP gain this quarter.However,even as overall activity indicators re-main weak,with Asian manufacturing contracting outside China this quarter,last years headwinds from these regions are fading or turning to tailwinds.US-China trade talks are progressing with the two sides aiming to achieve a deal by late April.Combined with the Fed pivot and Chinas tilt to fiscal ease,global financial conditions have eased.Importantly,early-year demand indicators for both the US and China have printed modestly stronger than expectations.Western Europe is often left out of this tracking exercise.It is not as large as the US nor does it contribute to global growth as much as China.Moreover,the poor quality and late release of its data diminish its signal value.In addi-tion,European demand and policy-making are less dynamic compared to the US and China,so the region often is on the receiving end of global growth impulses.However,the Western European economy comprises more than 20%of global GDP and it becomes a central driver of the global business cy-cle when it experiences a significant idiosyncratic shock.This was the case during the European sovereign crisis in 2011-13 while Europes acceleration 404550556065101214161820DI,sa,March flash for GermanyFigure 1:Mfg new orders PMISource:J.P.MorganEMU ex GermanyGermanyGlobal exEMU-2-1012101214161820Std.dev.from 2010-present averageFigure 2:France mfg surveys,employment Source:J.P.MorganINSEE PMIContentsUS:Still waiting for the BBA boost16US:Labor force participation has had a good run18Global Economic Outlook Summary4Global Central Bank Watch6Nowcast of global growth7Selected recent research from J.P.Morgan Economics9The J.P.Morgan View:Markets10Data WatchesUnited States20Euro area27Japan31Canada35Mexico37Brazil39Argentina41Colombia43United Kingdom45Emerging Europe47South Africa&SSA51EMEA EM focus54Australia and New Zealand55China,Hong Kong,and Taiwan57Korea60ASEAN62India66Asia focus68Regional Data Calendars72Bruce Kasman(1-212)834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NADavid Hensley(1-212)834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NAJoseph Lupton(1-212)834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NA2Economic ResearchGlobal Data WatchMarch 22,2019JPMorgan Chase Bank NABruce Kasman(1-212)834-David Hensley(1-212)834-Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-in 2016-17 was a key contributor to a phase of strong syn-chronized growth.Europes latest political and economic news raises the risk that it will be the source of a significant negative global shock this year.While we have tended to look at Brexit as a regional drag,the recent descent of UK politics into chaos raises a global threat.A third vote on PM Mays Brexit deal will likely fail again next week with the EU giving the UK until 12 April to pro-pose a way forward.It is increasingly difficult to see the UK being able to navigate through this mess without a general election.However,both the Conservative and Labour parties are being led from extreme positions,and it is not clear that an election will yield the consensus needed to forge a deal.Alt-hough the EU Council of Ministers threat of a“no deal”dead-line to force the UK into making quick decisions will likely be relaxed in the event of a general election,uncertainty will linger and weigh on UK and EU growth.The more immediate threat to the regional expansion comes from this weeks March flash PMI.As we navigate through persistent Euro area growth disappointments,we have relied on two lodestars:the PMI survey,which suggested that under-lying growth was far stronger than the 0.7%ar posted in 2H18,and labor market reports suggesting that growth drags were concentrated and likely to remain contained.This weeks March flash PMI survey raised concern on both fronts.The composite output PMI fell to 51.3 and is tracking a GDP gain of only about 1%.With fading drags in German and French industry expected to lead an area-wide rebound to 1.5%annualized GDP growth in 1H19,the weakness in both countries March surveys is of even greater concern.Indeed,Germanys manufacturing new orders PMI fell to a level be-low its EMU crisis low(Figure 1).At the same time,both the German and French flash employment readings registered large declines this month,pushing the Euro area print down more than two points.For now we are leaving our 1.5%1H19 Euro area growth forecast unchanged.With the gap between February national surveys and todays March PMI particularly large(Figure 2),next weeks March IFO and INSEE surveys will be an im-portant guide to the significance of this weeks disappoint-ment.US recession metric cross-currents Our overall 12-month US recession probability metric has remained stubbornly above 40%this year.In part,this reflects the role of tight labor markets as a perceived source of height-ened vulnerability.Other metrics we present have,however,been moving in different directions(Figure 3).After having risen materially in the six months through February,the risk associated with near-term economic indicators has moderated to below 30%in recent weeks.The up-and-down swings in probabilities related to equity prices and credit spreads are even greater.Having moved above 70%in January,it has now declined to 20%.Offsetting this has been the negative signal from the recent flattening of the yield curve whose sig-nal of recession risk has risen above 50%.We downplay US recession risks this year as usual vulnerabil-ity related to tight labor markets are absent.Next weeks 4Q18 GDP report is likely to confirm continued solid profit growth in the face of rising labor costs.And this weeks FOMC meeting confirmed an accommodative shift in the Feds reaction function.Despite a projection of sustained un-employment rates below NAIRU,the Fed is not projecting rate hikes or rising inflation this year.Although the guidance of a prolonged pause and an earlier end to balance sheet nor-malization has contributed to a flatter yield curve,we view this weeks Fed meeting as a key factor limiting recession risk this year.Flash PMIs point to global IP stallGlobal factory output growth slowed to a 1%ar rate last quar-ter,and indicators point to a near stall this quarter.Todays flash manufacturing PMIs from the G-3(US,Euro area,Ja-pan)imply the global output and new orders PMIs fell to near 49.5 in March.These would be the first sub-50 readings since the European sovereign debt crisis in 2012.The continued slide in the new orders PMI,in particular,casts a dark cloud on goods-sector activity heading into the second quarter.We continue to believe a downshift in business spending is driv-ing this weakness.While weve mainly focused on the decel-eration in capex,weve also come to think businesses are tap-ping the brake on inventory growth.The recent pullback in the global inventory PMIs,which appears to have extended through March,is consistent with this view.0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.7Jun 18Aug 18Nov 18Mar 19ProbabilityFigure 3:US probability of recession within one yearSource:J.P.MorganNear-term econ dataS&P 500&BBB spreadsYield curve3Economic ResearchGlobal Data WatchMarch 22,2019JPMorgan Chase Bank NABruce Kasman(1-212)834-David Hensley(1-212)834-Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-Outside China,Asian industry was already contracting as we turned into the New Year.Our forecasts for next weeks Feb-ruary IP reports from bellwethers Korea(-0.8%m/m)and Taiwan(-1.6%m/m)suggest the gloom has yet to lift.Japans IP is forecast to bounce,but this would leave the recent down-trend firmly intact.Exports have also contracted across most of Asia in February.The 20-day customs data hint at an in-crease in Korean exports in March,although it is hard to say whether this marks stabilization in the trend or an inflection point following four monthly declines.We will look to the remaining March regional PMIs for any signs of improve-ment,especially in the orders data.However,todays readings for the G-3,which included a decline in Japan(mirroring the drop in the Reuters Tankan),give little cause for optimism.EM central banks continue their dovish tiltThe soft patch in global growth is being countered by a broad-based global shift to easier monetary policyeither in the form of delayed normalization or outright rate cuts.For most,the cue is being taken from the Fed,which sent its message of lower for longer loud and clear this week.Where cycles are most linked and financial vulnerabilities most limited,the message is easily translated.With EM Asia geared to the global cycle and experiencing a material industrial sector slowdown,regional monetary policy is tacking accordingly with the Fed.Alongside Taiwan,where we expect the central bank to remain on hold this year,the Bank of Thailand voted unanimously this week to keep rates on hold.More explicit in its linkage to the Fed,Bank Indonesia this week made note of the FOMC pivot.We have removed our forecast for a 25bp hike in December.In EMEA EM,the downside risk is even more intense given the regions proximity to the Euro area and exposure to the puzzlingly weak German economy.Despite this threat,do-mestic conditions are robust,labor markets tight,and core inflation elevated.Even though core inflation is at 3%oya in both the Czech Republic and Hungary,concerns over Euro area growth are giving pause to central banks.For the NBH,we do not think the main policy rate will be changed before the ECB begins to normalize,but look for a modest 0.15bps hike to the deposit facility rate next week(Figure 4).In Rus-sia,a strong fiscal and external position provided sufficient insulation for the CBR to soften its rhetoric this week.We see a rate cut coming later this year.Turkeys financial vulnerabilities prompted the CBRT to sur-prise markets by hiking its policy rate 150bp to 25.5%this week.With the lira under pressure,the CBRT had little choice but to suspend its one-week repo auctions.Uncertainties about the upcoming elections and the governments policy response after the elections have increased the nervousness of local and international investors.Also,adding to this nervousness has been the recent drop in the CBRTs FX reserves,causing con-cern that the government is using the proceeds of its Euro-bond issuance to defend the currency.On top of this,house-hold FX deposits have increased by US$9.2 billion since the beginning of the year.We keep the view that the government will deliver on the need for a clear plan to regain credibility,and so still see easing in 2H19.In LATAM Brazils COPOM kept the Selic rate at 6.50%this week in its first meeting under its new governor,Roberto Campos Neto.While expressing comfort with its current stance,the statement signaled caution about the outlook on growth and shifted its inflation risk bias from upside to neu-tral.We continue to see the central bank on hold this year as pension reform will likely prove difficult to pass(see“Brazil social security reform:Is there a bad moon on the rise”)and the real comes under pressure as last years BCB forward in-terventions unwind.Editor:Gabriel de Kock(1-212)622-6718 02468123456101214161820%oyaFigure 4:Hungary core CPI and policy interest rate%.p.a.Source:J.P.MorganPolicy rateCore CPI4Economic ResearchGlobal economic outlook sum-maryMarch 22,2019JPMorgan Chase Bank NADavid Hensley(1-212)834-Carlton Strong(1-212)834-Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-Global economic outlook summary Real GDPReal GDPConsumer prices%over a year ago%over previous period,saar%over a year ago2018201920203Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q192Q184Q182Q194Q19United States2.9 2.3 1.8 3.4 2.6 1.5 2.3 1.8 1.8 2.7 2.2 1.71.9Canada1.81.51.72.00.41.01.82.22.32.32.02.02.0Latin America1.2 1.7 2.4 1.4 0.71.9 3.1 2.6 2.4 3.5 4.0 3.9 3.4Argentina-2.5-1.22.5-2.0-4.73.02.52.01.027.147.451.932.6Brazil1.1 2.1 2.5 2.2 0.5 1.8 3.4 3.2 2.8 3.3 4.1 4.2 3.4Chile4.03.53.00.65.34.04.24.03.82.22.41.92.7Colombia2.7 3.4 3.1 3.2 2.4 2.8 4.5 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.3 3.0 3.3Ecuador1.1-0.2-0.83.6-2.51.0-1.5-2.0-1.0-0.80.30.80.7Mexico2.0 1.5 1.7 2.4 1.0 0.8 2.0 1.8 2.0 4.6 4.8 4.3 3.7Peru4.03.93.6-3.110.41.06.02.04.00.92.12.62.4Uruguay2.1 1.9 1.9-0.1 0.5 2.0 3.0 4.0 1.0 7.3 7.4 7.8 7.2Venezuela-10.01.02.028250600000.Asia/Pacific4.84.44.53.64.64.14.75.03.92.01.91.71.6Japan0.8 0.3 0.7-2.4 1.9-1.0 1.5 2.5-3.5 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.3Australia2.82.12.71.10.72.62.42.53.02.11.81.62.0New Zealand2.8 2.6 2.6 1.22.22.82.82.82.4 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.7EM Asia6.05.65.75.35.65.55.75.95.82.32.22.01.9China6.6 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.2 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.6India7.37.27.46.86.76.97.17.57.74.82.62.93.8Ex China/India3.7 3.3 3.5 2.8 3.7 3.33.63.6 3.6 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.8 Hong Kong3.02.72.60.4-1.27.53.52.82.02.12.62.83.0 Indonesia5.2 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.8 Korea2.72.72.62.33.92.02.62.92.91.51.80.91.2 Malaysia4.7 4.4 4.3 6.7 5.7 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.3 1.3 0.3 1.3 1.8 Philippines6.26.05.96.16.46.16.15.76.14.85.93.32.1 Singapore3.2 2.0 3.0 1.4 1.4 0.44.92.8 3.0 0.3 0.5 1.4 1.6 Taiwan2.61.52.01.91.50.91.92.12.11.70.50.31.6 Thailand4.1 3.3 3.8-1.3 3.3 4.1 3.5 4.5 4.5 1.3 0.8 0.8 1.0Western Europe1.81.41.70.91.01.71.51.51.81.92.01.51.4Euro area1.8 1.4 1.7 0.6 0.9 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.31.2Germany1.51.31.7-0.80.12.81.81.51.81.92.11.31.1France1.5 1.2 1.7 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.2 1.2 1.1Italy0.8-0.20.8-0.6-0.4-0.80.00.50.81.01.51.00.9Spain2.5 2.3 1.9 2.2 2.8 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.0 1.0Norway2.52.42.11.53.72.02.52.32.32.43.43.02.1Sweden2.4 1.8 1.7-0.4 4.7 1.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.1 1.92.2United Kingdom1.41.41.62.50.71.31.01.51.8 2.42.32.21.9EMEA EM2.9 1.6 2.4 0.9-0.31.1 2.4 3.0 2.9 4.6 7.1 6.9 5.5Czech Republic3.02.62.92.93.82.42.62.82.82.32.12.32.3Hungary4.9 3.5 2.8 5.8 4.2 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.7 3.2 3.3 2.5Israel3.33.33.52.73.03.23.24.14.10.71.10.60.9Poland5.1 3.7 3.5 6.6 2.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 1.7 1.4 2.3 2.5Romania4.12.71.46.93.00.91.72.42.55.33.73.64.0Russia2.3 1.5 1.6 0.4 1.3 0.5 2.0 2.3 2