J.P. 摩根-全球-宏观策略-全球宏观数据观察-2019.3.22-80页.pdfVIP免费

EconomicResearchMarch22,2019GlobalDataWatchBrexitchaos,weakPMIsfocusattentionondownsideriskinEuropeGlobalindustrylookstohavestalledthisquarterFedreinforcesitspivot,andthedovishtiltbyEMCBsgatherssteamNextweek:Ifo,Insee;AsianIP;UScorePCEdipsto1.8%oyaEuropemattersWegenerallypayparticularattentiontodevelopmentsinUSandEMAsiaintrackingglobalgrowthdynamics.TheimportanceoftheUSrelatestoitssize,itsdominantroleinglobalmacropolicysettinganddrivingfinancialcondi-tions,andthedynamismofitsprivatesectordemand.TherelativelyhighqualityofUSdatareleasesfurtherenhancesitsimportanceasemergingglobalimpulsesareoftenidentifiedmostclearlyintheUS.WhileChina’seconomyissmalleranditsdatareleasesaremoredifficulttoread,itsoutsizedcontribu-tiontoglobalgrowthanditscentralroleintheglobalsupplychainshasen-hanceditsimportanceinglobaldatawatching.Thetimely,albeitnoisy,read-ingsavailableonmanufacturingandinternationaltradefromotherAsianeconomiesfeedingChina’ssupplychainandglobalgoodsdemandprovideanadditionallenstotrackglobalgrowth.AtpresentthesignalfromtheUSandEMAsiaremainsconsistentwithabelow-potentialGDPgainthisquarter.However,evenasoverallactivityindicatorsre-mainweak,withAsianmanufacturingcontractingoutsideChinathisquarter,lastyear’sheadwindsfromtheseregionsarefadingorturningtotailwinds.US-ChinatradetalksareprogressingwiththetwosidesaimingtoachieveadealbylateApril.CombinedwiththeFedpivotandChina’stilttofiscalease,globalfinancialconditionshaveeased.Importantly,early-yeardemandindicatorsforboththeUSandChinahaveprintedmodestlystrongerthanexpectations.WesternEuropeisoftenleftoutofthistrackingexercise.ItisnotaslargeastheUSnordoesitcontributetoglobalgrowthasmuchasChina.Moreover,thepoorqualityandlatereleaseofitsdatadiminishitssignalvalue.Inaddi-tion,Europeandemandandpolicy-makingarelessdynamiccomparedtotheUSandChina,sotheregionoftenisonthereceivingendofglobalgrowthimpulses.However,theWesternEuropeaneconomycomprisesmorethan20%ofglobalGDPanditbecomesacentraldriveroftheglobalbusinesscy-clewheni...