J.P. 摩根-全球-宏观策略-全球宏观数据观察-2019.1.11-84页.pdfVIP免费

EconomicResearchJanuary11,2019GlobalDataWatchGrowthandinflationforecastslowered,withEuropethekeydriverFundamentals,policyflexibilityshouldholdgrowthneartrendLowerpathsonEuroareaandJapancoreinflationposesecularthreatNextweek:Brexitvote;EuroareaIPdrops;softChinaexportsSlowcookerWehavebeenflaggingdownsiderisktoourglobalgrowthandinflationout-lookforsometime.Thisweek,wetookasignificantsteptowardbalancingtheserisks.ThelargestgrowthrevisionscomefromEurope.WeakincomingEuroareaindustryreportsbelieourforecastforareboundinmanufacturingoutput.EuroareaIPlookstohavecontractedlastquarter,continuingitssteadydownwardtrajectorysinceearlylastyear.WenowforecastaverageGDPgainsata1.3%aroverthelastandcurrentquarter—afullpercentagepointdowngradefromour2019outlookprojections.ThisdowngradelargelyaccountsforthesympatheticdeclinesinourCE-4growthprojections.WithsmalladditionaldownwardrevisionstotheUS(owingtothegovernmentshutdown)andEMAsia(whereareassessmentofChinagrowthawaitsDe-cemberactivityreleaseslaterthismonth)itlookslikelythatglobalgrowthisploddingalongatatrend-likepacearoundtheturnoftheyear(Figure1).Thesedevelopmentssuggestweareinthethirdgrowth-decelerationphaseofthisexpansion.Whilewecanattributethefirsttwotoconcentrateddrags—fromEuropeansovereigns(2012-13),andfromtheunwindofacommoditysupplyandEMcorporatecreditboom(2015-16)—therelativeimportanceofforcescurrentlyweighingonglobalgrowthisnotaseasytoparse.Astheslowdowntookholdlastspring,anEMdecelerationrelatedtoChinapolicytighteningandcountriesvulnerabletorisingglobalinterestrateswasthemaindrag.MorerecentlyEuroareaweaknessandthenegativefeedbackloopfromgeopoliticalconcernstobusinesssentimentandfinancialmarketriskappetitehavebecomeprimeconcerns.WhiletheDecembersurveydatashowcontinueddownwardmomentum,tworecentdevelopmentsshouldpromoteanendtothisdecelerationphasebeforemidyear.First,webelieveacombinationofsupportiveandflexiblepolicyactions—notablyChinaeasingandaFedpause—willcombinewitha1.82.32.83.33.8111213141516171819%chgover2-qtr...