J.P. 摩根-全球-宏观策略-全球宏观数据观察-2019.1.11-84页.pdf

Economic ResearchJanuary 11,2019Global Data Watch Growth and inflation forecasts lowered,with Europe the key driver Fundamentals,policy flexibility should hold growth near trend Lower paths on Euro area and Japan core inflation pose secular threat Next week:Brexit vote;Euro area IP drops;soft China exportsSlow cookerWe have been flagging downside risk to our global growth and inflation out-look for some time.This week,we took a significant step toward balancing these risks.The largest growth revisions come from Europe.Weak incoming Euro area industry reports belie our forecast for a rebound in manufacturing output.Euro area IP looks to have contracted last quarter,continuing its steady downward trajectory since early last year.We now forecast average GDP gains at a 1.3%ar over the last and current quartera full percentage point downgrade from our 2019 outlook projections.This downgrade largely accounts for the sympathetic declines in our CE-4 growth projections.With small additional downward revisions to the US(owing to the government shutdown)and EM Asia(where a reassessment of China growth awaits De-cember activity releases later this month)it looks likely that global growth is plodding along at a trend-like pace around the turn of the year(Figure 1).These developments suggest we are in the third growth-deceleration phase of this expansion.While we can attribute the first two to concentrated dragsfrom European sovereigns(2012-13),and from the unwind of a commodity supply and EM corporate credit boom(2015-16)the relative importance of forces currently weighing on global growth is not as easy to parse.As the slowdown took hold last spring,an EM deceleration related to China policy tightening and countries vulnerable to rising global interest rates was the main drag.More recently Euro area weakness and the negative feedback loop from geopolitical concerns to business sentiment and financial market risk appetite have become prime concerns.While the December survey data show continued downward momentum,two recent developments should promote an end to this deceleration phase before midyear.First,we believe a combination of supportive and flexible policy actionsnotably China easing and a Fed pausewill combine with a1.82.32.83.33.8111213141516171819%chg over 2-qtrs,saarFigure 1:Global real GDP growthSource:J.P.MorganPotential12345601234111213141516171819%3m3m,saar;both scalesFigure 2:Global CPI and retail salesSource:J.P.MorganRetail salesCPI(inverted)ContentsJapan:BoJ not likely to raise 10yr yield target,even in 202016Brazil:Its Black Friday here,too20Global Economic Outlook Summary4Global Central Bank Watch6Nowcast of global growth7Selected recent research from J.P.Morgan Economics9The J.P.Morgan View:Markets10Data WatchesUnited States23Euro area30Japan34Canada38Mexico40Brazil42Argentina44Chile and Colombia46United Kingdom48Emerging Europe51South Africa&SSA56EMEA EM focus58Australia and New Zealand59China,Hong Kong,and Taiwan61Korea65ASEAN67India71Asia focus73Regional Data Calendars76Our Special Report Looking ahead to the ECBs third decade was published on January 9,and is now available on our website.Bruce Kasman(1-212)834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NADavid Hensley(1-212)834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NAJoseph Lupton(1-212)834-JPMorgan Chase Bank NA2Economic ResearchGlobal Data WatchJanuary 11,2019JPMorgan Chase Bank NABruce Kasman(1-212)834-David Hensley(1-212)834-Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-moderation of geopolitical concerns to break the negative feedback loop.Second,we look for corporations that have generated robust profit gains over the past eight quarters to take only limited steps to cut back spending and hiring in the face of slower revenue growth.Against this backdrop,there is a strong case for global consumption gains to accelerate this quarter as declines in energy prices and global food price in-flation boost household purchasing power(Figure 2).If we are right,global growth should find its footing yet again and extend the life of the expansion into a second decade.Throwing in the towel on Japanese reflationWe are revising down our inflation forecasts substantially as well.We now expect CPI inflation to slip to 2.1%oya in 2Q19,0.5%-pt lower than the forecast in our 2019 outlook.In large part,these broadly based revisions reflect evidence that last years spike in food and energy price inflation is now unwinding.However,there is also a shift taking hold in our forecast for DM core inflation,which we have expected to climb based on the maintenance of above-trend growth amid historically tight labor markets.In the Euro area the adjust-ment is modestly downward to 1.3%oya for 2019.While the lack of upward momentum in recent core inflation prints points to a slower acceleration,the firming in wages and con-tinued tightening in labor markets points in the direction of a rise ahead.Indeed,despite last years growth disappointment,Euro area unemployment rate fell to a 10-year low of 7.9%in November0.8%-pt lower than 12 months ago.The more significant shift in our core inflation forecast comes in Japan(Figure 3).A year ago,we projected core inflation to reach 1%oya at this juncture;instead,it remains near zero.While various factors including the currency and global commodity prices have held back Japanese inflation,the fun-damental problem appears to be deeply-entrenched low infla-tion expectations.Policy has played a role as the BoJs credi-bility has eroded in the absence of action in response to large and persistent inflation disappointments.The BoJ appears to be constrained by its own institutional culture,political influ-ences,and concerns about financial stability.Seeing little pro-spect for a material change in these dynamics,this week we revised down our inflation outlook and see core inflation re-maining well below 1%through the end of 2020(adjusting for the upcoming VAT hike and policy shift to free educa-tion).Although we dont expect either the ECB or BoJ to act anytime soon we have pushed back our projection of the tim-ing of their first steps in the direction of normalization(see the research note“Japan:BoJ not likely to raise 10yr yield target,even in 2020”in this GDW).The growing concern for both central banks is that they will not have proceeded much down the path of inflation and policy rate normalization when the next global recession hits.China announces more policy easingDevelopments in the US-China trade dispute continue to move in a positive direction.This weeks initial round of talks in Beijing was widely reported to have gone well,laying the groundwork for Chinese Vice Premier Liu to meet with US Trade Representative Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin in Washington on January 30.Chinas efforts on the external front are being coupled with a raft of domestic stepsto contain a perceived loss of economic momentum at the turn of the year.On the heels of last weeks credit-easing measures(including a 100bp RRR cut),officials signaled further measures this week,including tax cuts for SMEs,fiscal subsi-dies for purchases of household durable goods including au-tos,and plans to frontload infrastructure spending.While do-mestic policy is easing broadly in line with our expectations,the speed and magnitude are somewhat more aggressive than anticipated.Euro area:Still looking for drags to fadeWhile we have materially lowered the Euro area growth fore-cast this week,there is still acceleration built into the 1H19 forecast as we believe that recent performance has been de-pressed by a number of forces that are likely to fade.In addi-tion to diminishing French protests,German industry should boost growth this quarterits car production slumped 43%ar in 3Q18 due to the new emissions-testing regime and recov-ered only partially last quarter.However,motor vehicles or-ders have returned to pre-summer levels suggesting the re-bound is delayed but not canceled.In addition,German phar-maceuticals output looks to have slumped at a 60%ar in 4Q18,dragging GDP down by 0.6%-pt ar.Remarkably,this likely reflects misreporting,which the statistics office is in-vestigating.In all,we have lowered our sights on underlying growth to about 1.55 for this year after accounting for these temporary lifts(Figure 4).-3.5-2.5-1.5-0.50.5201420152016201720182019JapanUSEMU%-pt chg in 4-quarter rolling forecast.JPM FRI Figure 3:Core inflation revisionsSource:J.P.Morgan3Economic ResearchGlobal Data WatchJanuary 11,2019JPMorgan Chase Bank NABruce Kasman(1-212)834-David Hensley(1-212)834-Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-Brexit:Here comes the voteThe UK House of Commons is widely expected to reject the proposed Withdrawal Agreement in Tuesdays vote.Thereaf-ter,it will be important to see whether a majority for a differ-ent course of action begins to form.Our central case is that it does not,affording May the opportunity to bring the deal back to the Commons again after further discussions with the EU.We think Mays best hope for the deal is that she is able to attract enough support from Labour MPs to offset the dissent within her own party,while the rising threat of a second refer-endum serves to limit that dissent.The legislative timetable is getting very tight if the statute book is to be ready for a March 2019 exit.The EU will agree a“technical extension”of that deadline upon request by the UK if the political decision on how to proceed has been made.But if the UK has not made that decision,the EU will be reluctant to agree an extension at an early stage,or one of much length.Macro uncertainty keeps EM CBs patientWith the global economy on a slightly softer trajectory than previously expected and with near-term inflation pressures more down than up for headline and stubbornly muted core,central banks around the world are shifting into a cautious holding pattern.For the EM,the lead is coming from the Fed but numerous other factors are at work.For largely open economies,the downshift in global growth is providing the most breathing room to central banks.For those heavily reli-ant on external capital flows,the pause in Fed rate hikes is the most important.The fall in commodity prices is having an opposing impact on commodity importers and exporters.Added to this mix are domestic political developments that dominate central bank behavior.None of these factors are mutually exclusive but their relative importance varies by country.In response to the slower pace of hikes from the Fed,we reduced projected tightening across the more capital-dependent parts of the EM,with Indonesia now expected to hike a cumulative 50bp this year,down from 100bp.In In-dia,we now expect a 25bp cut in 1Q19,and in the Philip-pines we now expect the BSP to hold through 2019.In EMEA EM,we removed one hike in South Africa(we see just one 25bp hike in July),reinforced by a more dovish tilt on the MPC.By contrast,in Turkey we think policymakers will remain cautious until midyear before starting an easing cycle.Growth in much of the CEE has been resilient to the EMU slowdown so far.However,the continued disappointment in EMU growth,our lowered growth outlook for the region,and a delayed ECB hike lead us also to delay the expected timing of the next policy hike in Hungary to 4Q19(from 3Q)and in Poland to 1Q20(from 4Q).In Romania,we now only look for two versus five rate hikes this year but this change owes more to idiosyncratic factors(a new tax on bank assets that is amplifying monetary policy tightening).As with the CBRT in Turkey,the Central Bank of Russia is focused on inflation risk in response to a VAT hike and we still see a 25bp March hike.A dovish new governor at the Bank of Israel leads us to forecast just one hike this year versus three previously.In the Latam heavyweights,politics dominates the scene even if US politics and growth are important underlying factors.In Mexico,where monetary policy is already tight,elevated inflation and concerns over the passage of the USMCA are keeping Banxico on track for a final 25bp hike in May.However,assuming delivery on the relatively pru-dent 2019 budget and stable financial markets,no further hikes would be needed.In Brazil,where monetary policy is loose,we remain cautious on whether the new government can implement pension reform.Although we still see 175bp of hikes starting in 2H19,positive surprises on pension re-form along with more contained global risks would allow the COPOM to stay on hold for longer.Editor:Gabriel de Kock(1-212)622-6718 0.51.01.52.02.53.03.52016201720182019%q/q saarFigure 4:Euro area GDP forecastSource:Eurostat,J.P.MorganNew fcst(dotted line excludesGerman car rebound)Previous fcst4Economic ResearchGlobal economic outlook sum-maryJanuary 11,2019JPMorgan Chase Bank NADavid Hensley(1-212)834-Carlton Strong(1-212)834-Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-Global economic outlook summary Real GDPReal GDPConsumer prices%over a year ago%over previous period,saar%over a year ago2018201920203Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q192Q184Q182Q194Q19United States2.9 2.31.5 3.4 2.5 2.02.0 1.8 1.5 2.6 2.2 1.3 1.5Canada2.12.11.72.02.51.81.82.22.32.31.92.02.1Latin America1.31.8 2.2 1.8-0.72.1 3.4 3.0 2.4 3.5 4.1 4.13.8Argentina-2.7-1.52.6-2.7-10.0-0.16.04.03.027.147.349.328.5Brazil1.2 2.3 2.2 3.1 0.6 2.6 3.2 3.2 2.0 3.3 4.1 4.13.9Chile3.93.53.01.13.54.04.24.03.82.22.83.33.5Colombia2.7 3.1 3.1 0.9 3.0 2.8 4.5 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.3 3.53.7Ecuador1.1-0.4-0.83.6-2.5-1.51.0-2.0-1.0-0.80.00.30.5Mexico2.0 1.71.7 3.4-0.51.5 2.0 1.8 2.0 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.0Peru4.03.93.6-3.13.04.54.04.04.00.92.42.62.7Uruguay2.1 1.9 1.9-0.1 0.5 2.0 3.0 4.0 1.0 7.3 7.4 7.8 7.2Venezuela-10.01.02.028250600000.Asia/Pacific4.94.64.53.64.94.64.55.03.92.02.02.02.0Japan0.8 1.1 0.6-2.5 3.0 1.5 1.0 2.5-3.5 0.6 0.9 0.40.3Australia3.02.72.71.03.82.52.62.53.02.12.12.42.2New Zealand2.8 2.62.6 1.3 2.62.92.62.5 2.4 1.5 1.81.31.6EM Asia6.05.75.65.45.55.55.55.85.82.32.22.42.4China6.6 6.2 6.1 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.3 6.2 1.8 2.22.42.2India7.37.27.16.96.86.67.17.57.74.82.73.74.5Ex China/India3.7 3.43.5 2.9 3.33.53.43.63.7 2.1 2.0 1.81.9 Hong Kong3.32.72.60.42.04.03.53.33.12.12.62.83.0 Indonesia5.1 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.74.74.74.8 3.3 3.23.02.8 Korea2.62.72.62.32.42.82.82.92.91.51.81.51.5 Malaysia4.7 4.44.36.7 4.0 4.54.34.34.3 1.3 0.3 1.3 1.8 Philippines6.26.05.95.95.76.16.15.76.1 4.85.93.32.1 Singapore3.32.4 3.0 3.0 1.6 3.01.0 2.8 3.0 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.6 Taiwan2.71.92.01.52.71.61.92.12.1 1.70.50.31.6 Thailand4.2 3.33.8-0.1 4.5 2.83.5 4.5 4.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.3Western Europe1.81.51.70.90.91.71.71.71.8 1.82.01.41.2Euro area1.81.41.70.6 0.81.81.81.51.8 1.7 1.9 1.11.0Germany1.51.41.7-0.80.32.81.81.51.8 1.92.11.71.3France1.5 1.11.71.3 0.51.01.31.51.8 2.1 2.2 1.21.2Italy0.90.40.9-0.50.00.50.80.80.81.01.50.80.8Spain2.5 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 0.70.8Norway2.42.32.11.12.82.52.52.32.32.43.42.81.7Sweden2.4 1.9 1.8-0.9 3.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.3United Kingdom1.41.51.82.51.01.01.52.32.02.42.32.11.9EMEA EM2.8 1.82.4 1.2 0.70.82.43.23.3 4.6 7.17.05.5Czech Republic2.72.62.91.62.03.32.82.82.9 2.32.22.72.3Hungary4.83.52.8 4.92.43