北京市重大刑事犯罪时空分布特征与影响因素分析摘要：基于中国裁判文书网，获取北京市2018年8类重大刑事犯罪数据，采用文本分析、空间自相关和相关分析等方法识别犯罪时空分布特征并分析影响因素。结果表明：①2月案件数量减少，夏季强奸案、抢劫案增多，工作日夜晚为案发高峰；②故意杀人案和放火案趋向随机分布，强奸案在城市中心和边缘部分地区均有聚集，故意伤害致人重伤或死亡案、抢劫案聚集于城乡结合部，贩卖毒品案聚集于市中心，总体案件数量从市中心向外先升后降，案件高密度区主要位于城六区；③不同类型犯罪对场所开放状况的需求不同，总体而言随着空间隐蔽度的提高，案件数量呈“U”形变化；④犯罪时空分布特征主要受居民出行规律、犯罪相关因素变化、特定社会经济特征人群分布等因素影响。根据犯罪时空分布特征及其影响因素需制定针对性的防范措施。关键词：刑事犯罪；空间自相关；城市犯罪空间盲区；北京市中图分类号：P237P237文献标志码：B文章编号：1672-4623（2023）07-0023-04Spatio-temporalCharacteristicsandInfluenceFactorsAnalysisofSeriousCrimesinBeijingCitySHIAn1,LIUQingfang1,SONGJinping1(1.FacultyofGeographicalScience,BeijingNormalUniversity,Beijing100875,China)Abstract:Wesearcheddataofeightkindsofseriouscrimein2018happenedinBeijingbyChinaJudgementsOnline,identifiedtheirspatio-tem-poralcharacteristicsbyspatialautocorrelation,andanalyzedtheinfluencefactorsofthembytextanalysisandcorrelationanalysis.Theresultsshowedthat①amountsofallkindsofcriminalcaseshadaremarkabledecreaseinFebruary,rapingandrobbingincreasedinsummer,eveningsinweekdayswerepeaktimeofcrime.②Killingandarsontendedtorandomlydistributeinspace,rapingtendedtogatherintheurbancenterandplacesaroundtheurbancenter,intentionalinjurywhichcausesseriousinjuryordeathandrobbingtendedtogatherinurban-ruralfringe,anddrugoffencesmorelikelyhappenedinprosperousareasneartheurbancenter.Generally,theamountofallthecasesofthewholecityrosefirstthendecreased,fromtheurbancentertorimareas.Thehigh-densityareasofcasesweremainlylocatedinDongcheng,Xicheng,Haidian,Chaoy-ang,FengtaiandShijingshan.③Differentkindsofcrimeshaddifferentneedsonpublic-privateconditionofcrimeplaces.Generally,wh...
