基于灰色模型的变电运维倒闸操作风险预测研究王鹏(国网江苏省电力有限公司扬州市江都区供电分公司,江苏扬州225000)摘要:为实现对倒闸操作风险的精准预测,降低因倒闸操作风险而导致的变电站安全事故的发生概率,开展基于灰色模型的变电运维倒闸操作风险预测方法设计。引进数据挖掘技术,构建变电运维设备的倒闸操作可视化风险模型,提取变电运维倒闸操作过程的风险特征值与异常逻辑关系。引入灰色模型,通过对变电运维倒闸操作风险趋势项的干扰分析与分解,初步掌握风险的变化趋势;根据倒闸操作状态下的设备健康值,进行倒闸操作风险的预测与量化,以此完成预测方法的设计。对比试验结果证明,所设计的方法的倒闸操作风险预测结果更加准确,说明此方法能够为变电运维等相关操作行为提供技术保障。关键词:灰色模型;趋势项;预测方法;操作风险;倒闸;变电运维中图分类号:TP311DOI:10.19768/j.cnki.dgjs.2023.02.044ResearchonSwitchingOperationRiskPredictionofSubstationOperationandMaintenanceBasedonGreyModelWANGPeng(YangzhouJiangduDistrictPowerSupplyBranch,StateGridJiangsuElectricPowerCo.,Ltd.,Yangzhou225000,China)Abstract:Inordertorealizetheaccuratepredictionofswitchingoperationriskandreducetheprobabilityofsubstationsafetyaccidentscausedbyswitchingoperationrisk,thedesignofswitchingoperationriskpredictionmethodofsubstationoperationandmaintenancebasedongreymodeliscarriedout.Thedataminingtechnologyisintroduced,avisualriskmodelofswitchingoperationofsubstationoperationandmaintenanceequipmentisbuilt,andtheriskeigenvalueandab-normallogicrelationshipintheswitchingoperationprocessofsubstationoperationandmaintenanceisextracted.Greymodelisintroducedtopreliminarilygraspthechangetrendofriskthroughinterferenceanalysisanddecompositionofswitchingoperationrisktrenditemofsubstationoperationandmaintenance.Accordingtothehealthvalueoftheequip-mentundertheswitchingoperationstate,theswitchingoperationriskispredictedandquantified,soastocompletethedesignofthepredictionmethod.Thecomparativeexperimentalresultsshowthattheswitchingoperationriskpredictionresultsofthedesignedmethodaremoreaccurate,whichshowsthatthismethodcanprovidetechnicalsupportforsubsta-tionoperationandmain...
