20170829-汇丰银行-数码通电讯-00315.HK-Hold Stable underlying trends in a tough market.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comMiFIDII–ResearchIsyouraccessagreed?CONTACTustodaySmarToneheadlinefinancialswerehitbyadeclineinhandsetsalesin2HFY17,butunderlyingtrendswerebetterCutnear-termforecaststoreflectshiftinhandsetbusinessmodel,offsetbylowermedium-termcostoutlookHold:cutTPtoHKD10.4(HKD10.6);changeincompetitivedynamicsandspectrumoutlookarepotentialcatalystsNetprofitdeclined16%YoY,butunderlyingtrendsarebetterthanheadlinenumberssuggest.SmarToneEBITandnetincomebothfell16%intheFYEJune2017,withanincreaseinspectrumamortization,lowervoiceroamingandlowerhandsetprofitthemainreasons.However,underlyingperformancewasbetterthantheheadline6%fallinservicerevenue,and13%declineinEBITDA.Adjustingfortheimpactsofhandsetsubsidyamortizationattherevenueline,localmobilepostpaidservicerevenuegrew2%YoY,andtheEBITDAdeclineisreducedto5%.SmarToneisaimingtomitigaterevenuepressurewithnewinitiatives.EvenifthenextiPhoneexpectedinSeptemberisverypopular,changedhandsetdistributiondynamicsinHongKongmeanthatthebenefitstoSmarTonewilllikelybelowerthaninpreviousyears.Recognizingthis,itisworkingtooffsettheimpactviaanumberofinitiatives,includingenhancedIoT(InternetofThings)rollout,loyaltyprograms,andcost-savingprogramsincustomercare.However,westillexpectthecorebusinesstoremainsoft,withvoiceroamingexpectedtodeclinefurther,andcompetitionremaininghighinboththepost-paidandpre-paidsegments.CutrevenueandEBITDAforecasts,reflectingweakerthanexpectedhandsetsales.2Hhandsetsaleswereweakerthanbothweandtheconsensusexpected.However,weassumethenextiPhonewillbemorepopularthanitspredecessors,andestimatethatequipmentrevenueshouldgrowby25%inFYJune2018toHKD4.4bn(comparedtoHKD13bnbookedinFYJune2016).Servicerevenuedeclineshouldmoderateto3%inthecurrentfinancialyear,from6%inFY...