摩根士丹利-中国股票策略：利率和政策趋势将支撑2021年银行股-2021.2.1-24页 (2).pdfVIP免费

Richard.Xu@morganstanley.comDaniel.Fang@morganstanley.comChiyao.Huang@morganstanley.comKatherine.XH.Liu@morganstanley.comAttractiveMORGANSTANLEYASIALIMITED+RichardXu,CFAEQUITYANALYST+8522848-6729DanielFangRESEARCHASSOCIATE+8522848-7368ChiyaoHuangRESEARCHASSOCIATE+8523963-4624KatherineLiuEQUITYANALYST+8522239-1924MorganStanleyappreciatesyoursupportinthe2021InstitutionalInvestorAll-AsiaResearchTeamSurvey.Requestyourballothere.ChinaFinancialsAsiaPacificIndustryViewChinaFinancialsChinaFinancials||AsiaPacificAsiaPacificRateandpolicytrendshouldsupportbanksharesin2021WebelieveeconomictrendsandtheneedtocontrolfinancialriskswillultimatelydriveupsidesurprisestointerestratesinChina,whichshouldsupportthebankNIMtrend.Thiscombinedwithreducedpolicywindowguidanceshouldfurthersupportbankshares.Economicrecoveryandtheneedtocontrolfinancialriskswillultimatelydrivepotentialupsidesurprisetointerestrateswhichcouldalsosupportbankearnings.WithChinanominalGDPgrowthreboundingfrom3%in2020toover11%in2021,weexpectedtherelatedrisingcreditdemandwillleadtohigherratesgivenmoderatinggrowthincreditsupply.Inaddition,muchhigherthanexpectedgrowthinhouseholdfinancialassetgrowthof15.6%in2020andstrongconsumptionpaymentvolumegrowthimplyhigherbusinessactivitiesthanofficialdata,whichcouldalsoputupwardpressureonrates.Lastly,alargepoolofshorttermliquidity,evidencedinoverRmb100tnofdemanddepositsandondemandinvestmentproductssuchasMMFscouldleadtoaquickriseinassetpricesandfinancialrisks,particularlygiventherisealreadyinmoneyvelocity.Thisdeservesmorecarefulandtimelymanagementwithpropermarketratelevelsasasignal,whichcoulddriveupwardrateexpectationsaswell.This,combinedwithnewbankfundingregulationthatcouldhelpcontainfundingcostatbanks,shouldsupportstableorimprovingNIMatbanks.Anumberofbankmicromanagementpolicyreversalscouldgraduallyreducemarketconcerns.Someofthekeypoliciesinclude:1)newlyaddedKPIforbankmanagementteamsrelatedtoprofitability,dividendsandshareperformancewhichaccount25%oftotalKPInow,2)reducedguidanceonloan...