21March2019GlobalSalesandTradingpersonnelatMacquariearenotindependentand,therefore,theinformationhereinmaybesubjecttocertainconflictsofinterest,andmayhavebeensharedwithotherpartiespriortopublication.Note:TotheextentMacquarieResearchisreferenced,itisidentifiedassuchandtheassociateddisclaimersareincludedinthepublishedresearchreport.Pleaserefertotheimportantdisclosureswww.macquarie.com/salesandtradingdisclaimer.ECONOMICSEconomistsMacquarieSecurities(Australia)LimitedRicDeverell+61282324307ric.deverell@macquarie.comJustinFabo+61282320696justin.fabo@macquarie.comHaydenSkilling,CFA+61282322623hayden.skilling@macquarie.comMacquarieCapitalMarketsCanadaLtd.DavidDoyle,CFA+14168483663david.doyle@macquarie.comNeilShankar+14166075055neil.shankar@macquarie.comMacquarieCapitalLimitedLarryHu,PhD+85239223778larry.hu@macquarie.comIreneWu+85239223796irene.wu@macquarie.comThispublicationhasbeenpreparedbySalesandTradingpersonnelatMacquarieandisnotaproductoftheMacquarieResearchDepartment.GlobalEconomicForecastUpdateOncemoreuntothebreach…Theglobaleconomyhitanairpocketaroundtheturnoftheyear,withthepartialindicatorssuggestingsignificantandwidespreadweaknessinDecemberandJanuary.Whileitistooearlytopreciselycalibratetheslowdown,ourbestguessisthatglobalGDPgrowthslowedfromaround2¾%(saar)inQ4toaround2½%inQ1,withindustrialproduction(IP)andexportsnoticeablyweaker.Thekeyquestioniswhethertheslowdownisthebeginningofthenextglobalrecession,oratemporarydipthatwillquicklyreverse,notingthatglobalIPgrowthhasrarelybeenweakerthanseeninrecentmonthswithouttheglobaleconomytippingintoarecession.•Thankfully,whiletheglobaldataisyettodefinitivelyturn,thereareenoughgreenshootsforustobereasonablyconfidentthatQ1willbethelowpointforthisminicycle,withglobalGDPlikelytoexpandbyastillsolid2¾%overthecourseof2019.•Wetakecomfortfromthefactthatthemajorcentralbankshaveturnedonadimeandarenowactingtoshoreupgrowth.Itisalsoreassuringthatmarketshavestartedtheyearinapositivemood–wesuspectthatfearofthetradewarandtherelatedmar...
