麦格理-美股-航空行业-美国航空业：2019年秋季会议指南-2019.9.3-37页.pdfVIP免费

Pleaserefertopage35forimportantdisclosuresandanalystcertification,oronourwebsitewww.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.3September2019UnitedStatesEQUITIESU.S.AviationCoverageSource:Companydata,MacquarieCapital(USA),September2019;pricesasofcloseon8/30/19AnalystsMacquarieCapital(USA)Inc.SusanDonofrio+12122316535susan.donofrio@macquarie.comAubreyTianello+12122311201aubrey.tianello@macquarie.comU.S.AviationFall2019ConferenceGuide:TopQuestionsWe’dAskManagementKeypointsTheFallaviationconferenceseasonwillgivemgmt.anopportunitytohighlightrevenueandcostinitiativesalthoughwedon’texpectmany8KupdatesWewillbemostfocusedonhowmanagementisthinkingforwardto2020,intermsofsupplyflexibilityandapossibleeconomicdownturnWearestillcoolonmostairlinesduetoMAXuncertaintyandtougherrevcompsbutstillseeupsideinlessors.DALandAERourhighestqualitypicksEventTheFall2019aviationandaircraftleasingconferenceseasonisabouttokickoff.ImpactWeexpecttheFallaviationanda/cleasingconferenceseasontogivemanagementanopportunitytonotonlyrelayupdatesontheongoingimpactofthe737MAXgroundings,butalsoenablethemtohighlighthowmuchbetterpositionedtheindustryisoverallfinanciallytowithstandanypotentialsoftnessintheeconomyversusbefore.Changesincludehealthierbalancesheets,amoreconsolidatedindustry,scarceairportrealestate(gates)intheUSatmostofthebusiestairports,andfaresegmentation(withlessofadifferentiationbetweenthehighsofbusinessfaresandthelowsofleisurepricing)tonameafew.Wedon’texpectmuchasfarasnew8KguidanceunlessitismateriallyoutofrangeasmanagementshavegottenoutofthispracticeinearlySeptember,savingguidanceforearlytomid-October.Ourcurrent3Q19expectationisatthemidtohighendofRASMranges,CASMexinline,andpotentialEPSupsideduetolowerfuelfor3Q19.Wewillrevisittheseexpectationsinthecomingweeks.Withinthisguidewehaveincludedourtopquestionswe’dfocusonwithmgmt.teamsfromeachCompany,aswellasabriefprimeroneachCompanyincludingmanagementbios,fleetprofiles,valuationhistory,andourfinancialforecasts.OutlookWhilewearequitebullis...