麦格理-全球-投资策略-正确、错误与回报：无罗盘巡航-2019.4.15-48页.pdfVIP免费

Pleaserefertopage46forimportantdisclosuresandanalystcertification,oronourwebsitewww.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.15April2019GlobalEQUITIESMSCIACWorld–GDPGrowth(marketprices)vsEPSgrowthrates–economiesneedtoacceleratemuchhigherthan3%Source:MSCI;FactSet;Macrobond;MacquarieResearch,April2019MQ–GlobalQualitySustainableGrowthPortfolio–up250bpsYTD;14%sinceinceptionSource:MSCI;Bloomberg;MacquarieResearch,April2019InsideKeyrecommendationsandportfolios2TheNewEraisdawning–fusingmonetary&fiscal3Riskone:Liquidity–upordown?5Risktwo:Doingtoolittle–‘dribs&drabs’11Riskthree:Doingtoomuch–‘freemoneyforall’14Riskfour:Stabilizingatawronglevel21InvestmentStrategies–navigatingwithoutacompass26Appendices36AnalystsMacquarieCapitalLimitedViktorShvets+85239223883viktor.shvets@macquarie.comPerryYeung+85239224769perry.yeung@macquarie.comRights,Wrongs&ReturnsTwilightzone.NavigatingwithoutacompassKeypointsHavewedoneenoughtostabilize?Yes.Reflate?No.Morehastobedone.Investorsaretransitingthroughtwilightfrommonetarytofiscallevers.Timingisuncertain.Westickwithsecularstrengthsinstocks&countries.Notenoughtostabilizeatlevelscompatiblewithassetprices…Asinvestorscontemplatetherestof’19and‘20,thekeyquestioniswhetherpressureshavetrulyabated&theextentofanylikelyreflation.OverthelastthreemonthsallmajorCBsexecutedasharpU-turnfromnormalizationtosupport.Atthesametime,Chinahasabandoneditsill-conceivedde-leveragingtofocusonsupportinggrowth.Theonlyremainingquestioniswhetheralloftheseactionsaresufficienttojustifycurrentassetpricesorwhethermoreneedstobedone.Intheformercase,asmooth‘goldilocks’environmentwouldprevail.Inthelatter,weneedtobraceforvolatilities.Itisaforkintheroad,withnomiddleground.Investorsaretodayinanuncharteredterritory,withneitherUSconsumersnorChinayetwillingtounderwriteamuchmorerobustreflationwhileCBsaretryingtofindthe‘middleground’ofbeingsupportivebutshortofinjectingfreshliquidity.Giventhattheworldislabouringunderamountainofexcesscapital,aremerewordsandsignsofCBsconc...