瑞信-美股-保险行业-美国寿险2018年Q4预览：宏观受压死差可能更有利-2019.1.25-25页.pdfVIP免费

DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.25January2019Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchLifeInsuranceLifeInsurance4Q18PreviewSECTORFORECASTResearchAnalystsAndrewKligerman2123255069andrew.kligerman@credit-suisse.comWilmaBurdis2123251594wilma.burdis@credit-suisse.comAlvinHuang2123255064alvin.huang@credit-suisse.comJackMatten2123252322francis.matten@credit-suisse.comPressuredMacros,LikelyFavorableMortality■Asthelifesectorcontinuestoappearundervalued,welikeVOYA,PRIandMETinto4Q18.VOYAshouldproducedouble-digitEPSgrowthy/y,despitemarketpressures,andbenefitfromlikelyhigherre-deployablecapitalandcostsavinginitiatives.WeprojectPRIwillpost18%year-over-yearEPSgrowth,with4Q18EEPSsensitivityofjust(2)%to4Q18’s(14)%declineintheequitymarkets.METwilllikelypostsolidresults,givenitsrelativelylowequitysensitivity,andnosurprises.■Lowermortalityratesin4Q18couldprovidealiftforRGA.Mortalityratesin4Q18fell(1.9)%sequentiallyand(9.4)%y/y,basedonCenterforDiseaseControl(CDC)data.AlthoughCDCdataisbestcorrelatedwithextremescenariossuchasthe1Q18fluepidemic,itmayimplyabenefittoRGAand,tolesserdegrees,BHF,EQHandLNC.■Equitymarketspressured4Q18results,butsomeofthedownsidehasreversedinearly1Q19.TheS&P500declined(14.0)%in4Q18,reducingexpectedEPSforequitysensitivecompaniessuchasAMPandVOYAandvariableannuitywritersBHF,EQH,LNCandPRU.But,morethan540bpsofthatunderperformancehasbeenreversedsince1Q19started.■Alternativesinvestmentperformancedownin4Q18,butonequarterlagforprivateequity(PE)fundsandonemonthlagforhedgefunds.PEfirms’onequarterreportinglagimpliesexposedinsurerscouldpostfavorablealternativesperformancein4Q18onstrong3Q...