瑞信-美股-钢铁行业-美国钢铁业2019年展望：供给侧风险已经显而易见-2019.1.8-44页.pdfVIP免费

DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.8January2019Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchSteelUSSteel-2019OutlookSECTORREVIEWResearchAnalystsCurtWoodworth,CFA2123255117curt.woodworth@credit-suisse.comPeterMitropoulos2123252703peter.mitropoulos@credit-suisse.comJonathanChang2123252656jung-yung.chang@credit-suisse.comSupplySideRisksNowWellKnown&UpsidetoLong/PlateSpreadsaKeyOffset;UpgradeSTLD&NUEtoOutperformandD/GXtoNThenear-termoutlookfortheUSsteelindustryactuallylooksconstructiveinourviewasseasonalweaknessandaggressivedestockingshouldfadebyearly1Q-19.DemandgrowthhasimprovedthepastfewmonthsandthesteeltradestalematewithCanadawouldsuggestthe25%tariffisstructuralfornow.Thenegativeannouncementsoncapitalspendingandsupplysidetailrisksarefullyembeddedinvaluationformoststocks,inourview.Whilethewallofnewsheetsupplyshouldimpairfundamentalsstartinglate2021,thereisstillsubstantialFCFgenerationpotentialbetweennowandthen,especiallyiftariffsremaininplace.■UpgradeNUE/STLDtoOutperformandDowngradeXtoNeutral:MetalspreadexpansioninplateandlongproductsisamajortailwindforNucorin2019&2020andtheGallatinexpansionwillbefirsttomarketamongthenewmills.ThebuyvsbuilddecisionatSTLDisbullishfromthebasisofnotbuyingBigRiver.STLDcontinuestogenerateverystrongFCFandtheunleveredbalancesheetshouldallowforrobustcapitalreturn.SharpdeclinesinHRCpricesintheUSandEuropeaswellasUSOCTG(againsthigherroundscosts)warrantcautioninX.WeseenegativeFCFin2019andminimalFCFin2020limitingcapitalreturnpotential.■USSheetPricestoReboundin1H-19:Thisseasonalpatternhasbeenevidentthepastthreeyearsandassumingnochangeintradepolicy,sheetpricesshouldrebound...