DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.7June2019AsiaPacific/SingaporeEquityResearchStrategySingaporeMarketStrategy�ResearchAnalystsGeraldWong,CFA6562123037gerald.wong@credit-suisse.comLouisChua,CFA6562125721louis.chua@credit-suisse.comDannyChan60327232082danny.chan@credit-suisse.comSTRATEGYTouristpassioniscoolingFigure1:Weexpecttouristarrivalstofallto18.3mnin2019,belowSingaporeTourismBoardexpectationsof18.7-19.2mnSource:STB,CEIC,CreditSuisseestimates■Loweringtouristarrivalgrowthassumption.WeforecasttouristarrivalsinSingaporetofallby1%YoYto18.3mnin2019,belowSingaporeTourismBoard'sprojectionof1-4%increase.ThisisledbyaslowdowninarrivalsfromChina,IndonesiaandMalaysia,impactedbypoorconsumersentimentandcurrencyweaknessrelativetotheSingaporedollar.Inaddition,lossofmarketshareofChinesetouriststocountriessuchasVietnamandJapanpresentsfurtherdownsiderisks.■Touristspendingcouldbeevenweaker.Weexpecttouristspendingtodeclineevensharperashighernumberofdaytrippersandmulti-destinationvisitorsresultsinshortlengthofstay.Despitea6%YoYgrowthintouristarrivalsin2018,expenditureonshopping/accommodationfell13%YoY/6%YoY,asaveragelengthofstayfellfurtherto3.3days.RecentplanstoboostinvestmentsbyintegratedresortsandtorejuvenateOrchardRoadareunlikelytoreversethenear-termweakness,inourview.■Cautiousontourism-relatedstocks.WedowngradeSATStoUNDERPERFORM(fromNeutral)aswebelieveitwillbedirectlyimpactedbythedeclineintouristarrivalvolumes.WealsodowngradeCDLHTtoNEUTRALasRevPARislikelytodisappointdespiteamoderationinsupplygrowth.OurTPforGentingSingaporeisreducedtoS$0.90(fromS$0.95)duetolowermassandnon-gamingrevenue.-20.0...
