1/42fa概览建行商品指数整体上行，年内开于1889.24，收于1954.31，涨幅达3.44%。各板块中，黑色板块上涨8.56%，有色板块下跌14.44%，农产品板块下跌6.10%，贵金属板块微涨0.07%。数据来源：Wind、CCB内外盘商品价格走势数据来源：Wind、CCB金融市场交易中心2018年回顾暨2019年展望大宗商品市场CommoditiesMarket2/42摘要作者原油：崔悦钢铁：袁匡济铜：张航大豆：徐俊021-60637062021-60637067021-60637068021-60637063cuiyue1.zh@ccb.comyuankuangji.zh@ccb.comzhanghang1.zh@ccb.comxujun4.zh@ccb.com复核陆怡烽021-60637061luyifeng.zh@ccb.com审核格根021-60637055gegen.zh@ccb.com3/42目录原油.................................................................................................................................................................4一、全年行情回顾：油价冲高回落，呈现倒V型.....................................................................................4二、供给方面：三足鼎立局势显，供给充裕潜力大.................................................................................5三、需求方面：由强转弱，2019下行风险较大......................................................................................10四、后市展望：需求偏弱、供给充裕下再平衡.......................................................................................13钢铁...............................................................................................................................................................15一、全年行情回顾：主导因素反复切换，行情走势一波三折...............................................................15二、宏观影响：国际环境演变整体影响国内行业政策...........................................................................16三、终端需求：房地产需求成中流砥柱，后继乏力成隐忧...................................................................16四、钢铁产量：环保限产政策密集支撑钢价，去产能完成产量回升...................................................19五、钢铁库存：年初创新高，年底创新低...............................................................................................22...
