汇丰银行-全球-量化策略-峰值的时间到了!但这个因素一直在起作用-2019.2.13-35页.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:HSBCTrinkaus&BurkhardtAGViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comGlobalgrossrepurchasevolumesexceededUSD1trnbeforeslowingdownagainduringthemarketcorrectioninQ42018Afterthepeak,buybackactivityislikelytodeclinethisyearduetohighfinancialleverageandlowerearningsgrowthBycontrast,thebuybackfactorcouldbenefitfromre-ratinganditsdefensivebutotherwisebalancedstylepositioningVolumesdown,factorperformanceup?2018wasarecordyearforsharebuybacks,althoughthemarketcorrectionduringQ4causedcompaniestoreducetheirrepurchaseactivitiesagain.Weexpectbuybackvolumestoretreatfurtherfromtheirpeaklevelsmainlybecauseofhighfinancialleverageandlowerearningsgrowth.However,thedeclineshouldbelimitedasFCFgrowthisstillsupportive.Besides,ournewlyintroducedregressionmodelshowsthatafterthefinancialcrisis,buybackshavebecomeamorediscretionarydecision,thuslessdependentonthecommonlyknownfundamentaldrivers.Asforthenetbuybackyieldfactor,weremainconstructiveandexpectlastyear’soutperformancetocontinue.Absoluteandrelativevaluationsarelow,whichoffersroomforsomere-rating.Besides,thefactorcouldbenefitindifferentmarketscenariosfrombothitsdefensivenessandslightlypro-cyclicalmacroexposure.WedisplaysixglobalandEuropeanbuybackscreensonpages5to11,highlightingtop-rankedstockswithhightrailingnetbuybackyieldandtotalshareholderyield,respectively,aswellascash-richnameswithsignificantexpectedrepurchasevolumes.Weprovidealsoalinktoourbuybackstock-selectionmodel(Excelfilehere),whichcanbeusedtoscreenmorethan8,000stocksglobally.HSBC'sglobalbuybackscreeningmodel(relativeperformance)Valuation:globalmedian12MfwdP/ESource:MSCI,FactSet,HSBCcalculationsUniverseisbasedonthelargest4,000constituentsbymarketcapfromtheMSCIACWIIMIwithatleasttwoFY1/FY2EPSestimatesSource:MSCI,FactSet,HSBCcalculations501001502002503003504002000200320062009201220152018Top...