汇丰银行-全球-贵金属行业-黄金展望：暴风雨之后的阳光才更灿烂-2019.7.8-33页 (2).pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:HSBCSecurities(USA)IncViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comGoldgainsbuoyedbyshiftingFedpolicyandongoingeconomicuncertainty,includingtradeandgeopoliticalrisksETFandComexpurchasesliftprices,butopentheriskofprofittaking;EMbuyersmayputfloorandceilingonprices;coinandbardemandmixed;mineincreaseslimited,butscrapisrisingWeraiseouraverageforecaststoUSD1,362/ozfor2019andUSD1,370/ozfor2020,fromUSD1,314/ozandUSD1,345/ozGoldoutlookGoldpricesarebenefittingfromashiftinexpectationstowardspotentialstimulusfromtheFedandothercentralbanks.“Safe-haven”flowsdrivenbyeconomicuncertainty,andgeopoliticalandtraderisksalsooffersupport.Thechangeininvestorsentimenthasbeenpronouncedandgoldhasbeenabletomaintaingainsinthefaceofastrongequitymarket.Someofthesebullishfactorsmayalreadybedigestedbythemarket,however,whichmaymoderatethepaceofgainsin2H’19.Webelievegoldissettomovehigherin2020also,especiallyiftheglobaleconomicandgeopoliticaloutlooksremainuncertain.USDaheadwindtorallies;FedpolicyaplusThechangeinFedpolicytowardsamoredovishstanceispromptinghighergoldprices,asistheincreaseinnegativeyieldinggovernmentdebtglobally.ExpectationsofFedratecutswilllikelycontinuetosupportgold,butmuchofthismayalreadybefactoredintopricesandthereforebeofdiminishingbullishinfluencegoingforward.ThemainobstacletofurtherralliesislikelytobeafirmUSD.HSBC’sFXviewisforastrongerUSDthrough2019andinto2020.TheUSDmaypresentthegreatestheadwindtogainsinthepriceofgoldandattheveryleastwilllikelylimitrallies,webelieve.Investmentwilllikelyincrease;physicaldemandimprovingNetlongpositionsontheComexareupsharply.ETFaccumulationisalsoincreasingatabriskpace.Whilewelookforfurthergainsinbothbasedonlikelysteady“safe-haven”demand,therapidaccumulationoflongsleavesthemarketopentoprofittaking.Pricesensitiveemergingmarketdemand,mostlyforjewelry,waskeyinsettinga...