汇丰银行-中国-银行业-中国银行业：金融体系的稳定器-2019.9.2-52页.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comTHISCONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDTOTHEPEOPLE'SREPUBLICOFCHINA(THE"PRC")(EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGANDMACAO)1H19wasbetterthanthemarketwasconcerneditwouldbe,inourview.Wediscusssectortrendsandkeybeats/missesCostefficiencyandassetqualityimproved;asanoffset,NIMremainedunderpressureanddepositgrowthslowedin2QAmongourBuy-ratedstocks,weseemorepositivesforCCB,CEBandICBCinthe1H19results1H19resultsforChina’sbankscameinbetterthanthemarketwasconcernedtheywould,inourview.Inaggregate,thebanksunderourcoveragedeliveredattributableprofitgrowthof6.7%y-o-yin1H19,accountingfor52-61%of2019econsensusacrossallthebanks.Attributablebookvaluegrew4.5%h-o-hdespite2018’sdividendpayout.Amongthesevenkeyfactorswemonitorinresults,weidentifyfourpositive,onenegative,andtwomixedtrends:1.Netinterestincomemoderatelynegative.Netinterestincomerose1.9%q-o-qin2Q19,or2.2%h-o-h.NIM,inaggregate,wasdown2bpq-o-qin2Q19anddown5bph-o-hin1H19.PressurewilllikelypersistwithLPRinterestratereform(ChinaBanks–Interestratereform:bull/bearviewsandsensitivity,19August2019).2.Fee&otherincomemoderatelypositive.Feeandotherincomefor1H19rose13.6%,attributabletocard-relatedincomeandproductdistributionincome.Feeandotherincomerepresentedc.30.3%oftotalrevenuein1H19.3.Costefficiencypositive.Perhapsoverlooked,banksnoticeablyimprovedcostefficiency.Revenueinaggregatewasup10.5%y-o-yin1H19,versuscostgrowthof7.4%y-o-y;thecost-incomeratiowasdown83bpy-o-y,to28.8%.4.Assetqualitymoderatelypositive.NPLratiosinaggregatewasdown6bph-o-h,to1.45%,atend-2Q19.NPLcoverageincreasedratioup11.1ppt,to214%.Loanlossreserveas%totalloanswasup4bph-o-h,to3.09%.5.Balancesheetmixed.Loansgrew6.7%h-o-h(fasterthanassetgrowthof5.8%).Depositsgrew7.4%h-o-h.Theloan-to-depositratiowa...