汇丰银行-中国-耐用品行业-中国白色家电：不要把太多希望寄托在补贴上-2019.1.24-33页.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comHSBCChinaConference201915-17May,ShenzhenRegisternowTHISCONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDTOTHEPEOPLE'SREPUBLICOFCHINA(THE"PRC")(EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGANDMACAO)Thegovernmenthashintedatthepossibilityofnewsubsidiesonappliances,aimedatboostingconsumptionIfthatshouldhappen,thebenefitswouldnotbeasgreatasinearliersimilarprogrammes;airconditionersshoulddobestPreferBuy-ratedGree(TPRMB48.80),Midea(TPtoRMB46.10fromRMB49.60),QDHaier(TPtoRMB18.50fromRMB17.50)Themarketexpectssubsidiesonappliances.AsenioreconomicpolicyofficialtoldstateTVinearlyJanuarythatthegovernmentmightintroducenewmeasurestoboostconsumptionofautosandappliancestohelpstabilisetheeconomy.Nomorehasbeensaidaboutthis,butthemarketissittingup.Thebigthreeappliancemakers’sharesrebounded10%year-to-date(vs6%fortheCSI300).Inthisreport,weweighwhetherthegovernmentislikelytogoaheadwiththeideaand,ifso,whatanewsubsidyprogrammemightlooklikeandhoweffectiveitmightbecomparedwithearlierones.Don’tpintoomuchhopeonsubsidies.We’vebeenherebefore,sowelookedbackatsubsidyprogrammesthatranbetween2009and2013andfoundthattimeshavechanged.Indeed,wecametothefollowingconclusions:(1)Subsidieswouldbejustashort-termremedy.Thelastsubsidyprogrammesonlyfrontloadedthedemandratherthanchangingthelong-termgrowthtrendsoftheindustry.(2)Anew‘GoRural’stimulusisunlikely.Boostingdemandinruralareasaccountedfor56%ofsubsidiesonappliancesintheearlierprogrammes.AsimilarprogrammeisunlikelytobelaunchednowgiventhemuchhigherpenetrationofappliancesinruralChina.(3)Morespendingwouldbeneededtoachieveasimilareffect.Themarketforappliancesismuchlargerthanin2008,andweestimatethat‘OldforNew’and‘EnergyEfficient’subsidieswouldneedtobe93%higherthanunderprevioussimilarprogrammest...