汇丰银行-全球-投资策略-全球多资产投资策略-2019.3.4-21页.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:HSBCBankplcViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comTherisk-onrallyisstillrunning,albeitmoreslowlyThegoldilockseraisunlikelytoreturnforlongthough……aswesticktoourviewofultimatelylittleperformancedifferentiationbetweenDMratesandglobalequitiesLastweekcouldbeseenasaclassicrisk-onmove:riskassetssuchasequitiesandhighyieldgainedwhilerisk-offassetssuchasDMsovereignsandgoldlostground.However,thesegainsandlosseswereonlymarginal.Volatilityremainedsubduedacrossmanyassetclasses,mostnotablyinEUR-USDandgold.Mostimportantlyforus,Fedrateexpectationsandthe2s10sUSTcurvewereunchanged,creatingafavourableenvironmentforriskassetstoflourish.Wenotetherewasapick-upinrealUSTyields.Multi-AssetSpotlight:Aftertherally…Our2019viewisforlittleclearperformancedifferentiationbetweenglobalequitiesandDMrates,particularlyinrisk-adjustedterms(seeTheendofeasy,14November2018).Despitethestrongrallyinriskassetsy-t-d,weseenoreasontochangethisview.Wethinkthereissomesteamleftinriskassetsinthecomingmonths.But,forthistobeconsistentwithourviewofultimatelylittleclearperformancedifferentiation,thegoldilocksera–ienooverlystronggrowthbutnofearsofanimminentrecessioneither–isequallyunlikelytoreturnforthewholeof2019(seeGoldilocksisgoing,4February2019).FurtherriskassetupsideimpliesthateventuallyUSandglobaleconomicdatamustatleaststabilise.Yetthiswouldopenthedoorformarketstore-priceFedhikes.CoupledwithrisingrealUSTyieldsandaflattening2s10sUSTcurve,thismightputriskassetsonthebackfootonceagain.Hencewithdatastabilisation,thebenignbackdropmightthenturnsour.Ontheflipside,wouldafurtherdovishpivotbytheFedandotherDMcentralbankspropelriskassetsfurther?Again,no.WethinkfurtherdovishnesswouldmostlikelybeinresponsetoupcomingfearsofaUSandglobalrecession–certainlynotthekindofbackdropriskassetswouldappreciate.4March2019SticktothescriptMULTI-ASSETGLO...