汇丰银行-全球-石油服务与设备行业-全球油服：为2019年回顾大问题-2019.1.13-57页.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:HSBCBankplcViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comWeupdateourOFSsectorandstockviewstoalignwithourrevisedlowerframeworkforcrudeoilpricesCuttingestimatesandtargetpricesforshortcycleexposureforSLB,HAL,BHGE,WEIR,otherassumptionsunchangedGradualrecoveryinoilfieldactivitysettocontinue,especiallyoffshore;preferrednamesBuy-ratedSLB,WG,SPMandRIGPostponingtheinevitable:The‘wealth&prosperity’associatedwiththeChineseYearofthePighasclearlybeenabsentfromtheoilfieldinrecentmonths,butwethinkOFScouldbeataninflectionpointinmarketsentiment.Wedonotforeseea‘super-cycle’byanymeans,andournewoilpriceframeworklowersourviewonthepaceofshortcycleOFSrecovery.However,wethinkthisde-ratedsectoroffersgoodopportunities,supportedbyagradualpick-upincrudepricesandoilfieldinvestment.What’schanged:We’vereflectedourrevisedoilpriceframework(Oilin2019,13January)bycuttingourrecoveryassumptionsforshort-cyclebusinesses(mostlyUSunconventionals);thisleadsustoreduceourEPSestimatesfortheBig3(Schlumberger,Halliburton,BakerHughesGE)onaverageby15%for2019and12%for2020,andourtargetpricesforthisgroupareonaverage11%lower.We’vealsoupdatedourforecastsforWeirandTechnipFMC,butleftmostotherassumptionsunchanged.Wethinktheoutlookforoffshoreinparticularwillchangelittle,givenitsbiastowardslong-termoilpriceassumptions.Spottingtheopportunity:Weseegoodbottom-lineandcashflowgrowthfrommostoftheoilfieldsupplychain.Over2018-2020weexpect25-30%EBITDAgrowthand40-60%EPSgrowthfromSchlumberger,Halliburton,WoodandWeir.Exposuretothisdiversifiedgrowthlooksattractiveat15x2020eEPSforSchlumbergerandc.10xforHalliburton,WoodandWeirandwenote5%dividendyieldsatSchlumbergerandWood.We’relesspositiveontheoversuppliedsubseavaluechainbutbelievetheconsolidatingoffshoredrillingsectoroffersdeepvalue;Transoceanisourpreferredname,with73%impliedupsidetoourtarg...