汇丰银行-中国-宏观策略-亚太利率：中国这次的钟声不一样-2019.1.22-35页.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comTHISCONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDTOTHEPEOPLE'SREPUBLICOFCHINA(THE"PRC")(EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGANDMACAO)ReceiveCNY5yrNDIRS:AcceleratedpolicyeasingPayINR5yrNDOIS:Fiscalheadwinds;slowdowninbuybacksLong10yrMGS:ReboundinoilpriceslowersfiscalconcernsOurbullishconvictiononChinahasbeenkepthighbyincomingdataandpolicysignals.ThePeople’sBankofChina(PBoC)iseasingatanacceleratedpace,recentlyaddingarecordamountofliquidityviaitsopenmarketoperations,justadayafterloweringbanks’requiredreserveratio.Yet,evenwithmonetaryeasingandsometaxcuts,itmaybetooearlytocallforagrowthrebound.Totalsocialfinancinggrowthisstillslowingpost-deleveraging,andabroad-basedrelaxationofpropertymeasuresremainsremote.ExtrapolatingChina’sslowdowntoAsiacouldleadsometoexpectacross-the-boardeasing.However,assumingthatregionalgrowthdecelerates,butdoesnotfalloffacliff,itwouldbemorereasonabletoexpecteasingexpectationstoriseonlyinselectedmarkets,suchasIndonesia,thathikedmoreaggressivelyin2018,andtoacertaindegreeIndia.Forotherlow-yieldingmarkets,suchasKoreaandThailand,weseenovalueinchasingrateslower.Relativevaluetradesarebetterplays–forexample,positioningfor2s5scurvesteepeninginThailandrelativetoKorea.Forthismonth,ourkeynewtradesaretopayIndiaratesandreceiveratesinSingapore.InIndia,thegrowingriskoffiscalslippageandapotentialslowdowninthecentralbank’sbondbuybackcouldpushrateshigher.ForSingapore,therecentunderperformanceoflocalratesrelativetoregionalpeershasbeenstark.WithmutedbanklendingactivityandapotentialpeakintheFedhikingcycle,weseescopeforSingaporeratestofall.Inaddition,MalaysiagovernmentbondshavebeenalaggardamongstEMAsiasovereignsandweseescopeforacatchupparticularlygiventherecentreboundinoilprices.Table1:HSBCm...