汇丰银行-全球-投资策略-多资产策略：所有人都担心赶不上火车-2019.3.18-23页.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:HSBCBankplcViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comVotingopens11thMarch–12thAprilIfyouvalueourserviceandinsight,pleasevoteClickheretovoteVoteinExtel2019Fearofmissingout(FOMO)hasledtothereturnofbuy-the-dipWhilethe‘Fedput’remainsinplace,asignificantsell-offofriskassetscontinuestobeunlikelyWeassessthevarioussignalscomingfromthecurrentmacrobackdropandtheircross-assetimplicationsRiskassetsreboundedacrosstheboardlastweek.Infact,itappearsoneofthemostprominentmarketfeaturesofthepastcoupleofyears–‘buythedip’–isstagingacomeback(chart1).Hencewethinkasignificantsell-offcontinuestobeunlikelyaslongas1)USmacrodatasignalsnocleardirectionand2)the‘Fedput’thereforeremainsinplace.Additionally10YUSTscontinuetobemoreresponsivetonegativeUSactivitysurprisescurrently(chart2).ThisshouldpreventDMyieldsfromrisingsignificantlyasothercentralbankssuchastheECBwillstaydovishforlonger.Multi-AssetSpotlight:It’sallaboutmacroTradeandindustrialdatahavebeenpatchyinrecentmonths.Indeedthemore‘open’economiesappeartohavehadlargerfallsintheirmanufacturingPMIssinceSeptember.WhiletradetensionshaveofcoursecontributedtoslowingPMIs,infactEMtradedataalreadystartedtosurprisenegativelypriortoMarch2018.Oureconomists’tradesentimentindicatorhasplummetedsharplyinrecentmonths.Therelativeperformanceof1)globalequitiesvsglobalsovereignbondsand2)EMcross-assetperformance,however,ismoreupbeatandseemspricedforatleastsomestabilisationintrade.Hence,webelievethelion’sshareofthereboundinriskassetsisalreadybehindus.Sothepositioningwithinassetclasseswillbecomemuchmoreimportant.InDMequities,ourstrategistsstillliketheUS,shunEurope,seefairlydecentupsideinJapan,andrecentlyupgradedconsumerstocksgloballyastheconsumerremainsindecentshape.InDMrates,welikedurationinEURnon-coreandAustralia,butthinkexpectationsofeasinghavegonetoofarinCanada.18Mar...