汇丰银行-全球-石油与天然气行业-雪佛龙(Chevron)正处于有利位置但埃克森美孚(Exxon)是美国主要的买入对象-2019.3.14-40页.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:HSBCBankplcViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comVotingopens11thMarch–12thAprilIfyouvalueourserviceandinsight,pleasevoteClickheretovoteVoteinExtel2019Twostronggrowthstories,sharplydifferentmarketsentimentWethinksentimentonExxoncanimprovesubstantiallyReiterateBuyonXOM,HoldonCVX.RaiseTPs3%/6%MuchmorePermiangrowth:Wethoughtthe2019strategyupdatesfrombothChevronandExxonwerepositive,characterisedbybigupgradestoguidanceonPermianoutputto900mbdby2023,and>1mbdby2024respectively.Chevronisalreadyinitsgrowthsweetspot,withupstreamgrowthaveraging~6%pathrough2017/18/19e,andcashflowhavingrecoveredbyasector-leading58%in2018.Break-evenisdowntothelowUSD50/b,andthebalancesheetisingoodenoughshapeforbuybackstohavestartedin2H18.Thelong-termoutlookforcontinueddividendgrowthandsharebuybacksisgood,inourview.Exxon’scashgenerationwasdisappointingin2018.Thecompanyisinvestingheavilyattheoptimumpointinthecostcycle,anditsgrowthprospectsareextremelystrong.However,thiscomesatthecostoflessnear-termfinancialflexibilitythanmany.ThelackoffreecashforsharebuybacksandtheperceptionthatExxon’sgrowthisalllonger-termhasledtowidespreadnegativesentimenttowardsthestock.What’sthemarketmissing?OnChevron,wedon’tthinkmuch.Asmuchasthisisastronggrowthstorywithgreatvisibility,itappearsreflectedinhighlypositivemarketsentimentandinvaluationswhichwedonotthinkoffermuchfurtherroomforrelativeupside.OnExxon,afewkeythings,recognitionofwhichwethinkcouldleadtomuch-improvedmarketsentiment:1)thesheerscaleoflong-termgrowth–weforecast2025eproductionof4.8mbd,26%above2018;2)growthintheneartermtoo.Weseeproductiongrowthof3%pain2019-20e,plussharplyhigherearningsfrombothDownstreamandChemicalsonaone-twoyearview;and3)buybackscouldcomesoonerthanthemarketthinks,withdebtdowntowheremanagementwantsit,anddisposalslikelytoboostnear-termfreecashflow.Wer...