汇丰银行-全球-金属与采矿业-铝：行业表现-2019.4.8-42页.pdfVIP免费

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:HSBCSecuritiesandCapitalMarkets(India)PrivateLimitedViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comWeexpectaluminiumpricestostageamodestrecoveryintheneartermwhilealuminapricesmaystaysubdued……assuchrelativepositioningwithinthevaluechainislikelytobeakeydifferentiatorforcompanieswithexposureRioTinto’saluminiumbusinessisbetterpositionedthanSouth32’swithinourLSEcoverage;wepreferHindalcoamongIndianproducersandlikeHongqiaoandChalcoinChinaMoreconstructiveonaluminiumvsbauxiteandalumina:Weforecastaluminiumtooutperforminthenear-(+11%in2019)andmedium-term(+25%by2023)supportedbyarecoveryindemandinChina,astheimpactofstimulusmeasuresfiltersthroughtheeconomy.Weexpectthealuminamarkettoreturntoamodestsurplusin2019,asAlunorterestarts,whichshouldseepricestrendtowardscostsupportlevels(USD350/t).Forbauxite,webelievethetightmarketwilllikelyeaseasgrowthinsupplyfromGuineaoffsetsenvironmentandsafetydrivenmineclosuresinChina.Relativepositioningiskeytoperformance:Companieswithgreateraluminiumexposurearelikelytobenefitfromthesepricedynamics.Companieswithintegratedvaluechainsandaccesstocheappowerwillbebestplacedtobenefit,inourview.LSEexposure:RioTintoshouldbenefitfromhavingmoredefensiveconversionmarginsandgreateraccesstocheaphydropower.South32,however,isdifferentiatedbyitslongaluminaposition(3.5mt)andhencemayseemarginpressureunderourbasecase.Indianexposure:WepreferHindalcoduetoitslow-costintegratedIndianoperationsandrelativelylow-riskcontributionfromitswholly-owneddownstreamsubsidiary,Novelis.Vedanta’saluminiumbusinessisrelativelyhighcostandhencehighlygearedtothealuminiumprice.NALCOalsohasrelativelyhighoperationalleveragebutisdifferentiatedbyitslongaluminaposition.Chineseexposure:WeseevalueinbothChalcoandChinaHongqiao.Bothcompanieshaveintegratedproductionandearningsarehighlysensitivetoaluminiumprices.8April2019K...